Published Date: 2013/12/19

Interview: "Hot Topics and Noteworthy Products of 2013" What Deep-Seated Consumption Trends Reveal Part 3

[Part 3]

Reality Exceeds Expectations as the "True 21st Century" Begins

Sodegawa: Based on the five trends we've discussed so far , we've adopted the phrase "The Future Has Begun to Move: The True First Year of the 21st Century" as a consumer keyword for looking ahead to 2014. What are your impressions of this?

Miura: The mood of an era doesn't necessarily begin the moment the decade starts . For example, the 1980s didn't truly begin in 1980; the mood of the 1970s lingered. Looking back, the distinct feel of the 80s emerged around 1983-84. Think theme parks and popular TV variety shows.

The 21st century didn't start immediately in 2001 either. Even after the calendar turned to the 21st century, there were still lingering aspects of the 20th century. My sense is that it won't be until around 2015 that we'll finally see the true essence of the 21st century emerge.

Sodegawa: The "Hot Topics & Products 2013" report described 2013 as "the year reality exceeded expectations." Even government officials didn't anticipate stock prices rising this much. Car collision avoidance systems and 3D printers, which we thought were still far off, suddenly became commercial products. And many people were surprised, thinking, "You can actually get them now?" It's the surprise of reality exceeding expectations. Considering this trend, I thought 2014 might finally become the "true first year of the 21st century."

Miura: That possibility certainly exists . I hope it becomes the first year that truly embodies the 21st century, with all my expectations.

If we stay positive, it will surely become the "first year of a new era."

Miura: Society needs "success experiences ," and fundamentally, Japanese people should excel at nation-wide events like the Olympics. During the 1964 Tokyo Olympics, I was six years old, watching on TV in Niigata, thinking "This is amazing." That impression remains vividly with me to this day.

But people under 40 today don't have that experience. That doesn't mean us older guys should grab young people and say, "You guys don't know what the Olympics are like live, do you? What, you don't know about the Expo either?

Oh, you didn't experience the bubble economy either? Poor things," it just doesn't work. We really need to let the younger generation experience success for themselves.

Sodegawa: The importance of real experiences , right ?

Miura: Back in 2016 , when we were bidding for the Olympics, people were pretty lukewarm. But this time, with the 2020 bid, they got so excited, right? They got a real taste of that "real" feeling.

If we actually host the Olympics in 2020, people will inevitably say, "We're glad we did it." Even decades later, they'll look back nostalgically, saying things like, "I was so busy with work back then," or "Our salaries went up, didn't they?"

Millions of people—from elementary school kids who never experienced the Olympics firsthand to those in their 40s—will surely hold onto that positive feeling. In this challenging era of population decline and rapid aging, that shared success story is absolutely essential for maintaining vitality and persevering.

Sodegawa: That's a very relatable perspective . Finally, Miura-san, what expectations do you have for 2014?

Miura: I hope the economy recovers in earnest and a sense of authenticity emerges. While concerns like the consumption tax hike and earthquakes remain, I believe the five trends mentioned earlier will form the positive undercurrent for 2014. Even with various difficulties, if we set goals and approach things positively, this year could become the "first year of a new era."

Sodegawa: Thank you for sharing your insights. [End]

Miura Atsushi

(Miura Atsushi)
Director, Culture Studies Institute
Joined PARCO in 1982. Served as editor-in-chief of the marketing information magazine 'ACROSS'. Later, after working at Mitsubishi Research Institute, established the Culture Studies Institute in 1999. His publications include the bestseller 'Downstream Society' (800,000 copies sold), as well as 'The Fourth Consumption: Creating Connections in Society', 'Japan in 2030: What the Data Reveals', and 'What Will Japanese People Buy Next?'.

Yoshiyuki Sodekawa

(Sodekawa Yoshiyuki)
Senior Researcher, DENTSU SOKEN INC.
Joined Dentsu Inc. in 1987. Held positions including Marketing Bureau, Senior Researcher at DENTSU SOKEN INC., and Policy Planning and Research Officer at the Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office, before assuming his current role. Serves as a part-time lecturer at Tama Art University and Keio University Graduate School. Specializes in marketing communication, family studies, generational theory, and hit product/trend analysis. Author of books including The Mechanics of Creative Thinking.