Everything begins with a single hypothesis. Our Hypotheses Create the World

This time, we introduce "Our Hypotheses Create the World" (Diamond Inc.), written by Yohei Sadoshima, an editor and entrepreneur who launched the writer's agency Cork in 2012 after creating numerous hit content at Kodansha.

What will the world become?

The first question posed upon opening the pages is: "What will the world become from here on?" I find myself deeply curious about this too. The future feels uncertain and unsettling. Mr. Sadoshima cuts straight to the point: "If you have time to worry about 'what the world will become,' I'd rather spend it thinking about 'what to do with the world.'" This book details how Mr. Sadoshima—who has pioneered a new frontier beyond the front lines, a "zero line" if you will, in his role as a "writer's agent"—approaches his thinking and what he puts into practice to "shape the world."

While there are many sections I highly recommend reading—such as "Methods for Controlling Emotions" and "The Importance of Thoroughly Mastering Fundamentals"—I'll leave those for you to discover by picking up the book. Here, I'd like to touch on three major points.

The "Hypothesis-Verification Approach" for Creating Revolution

First, the "hypothesis formulation" approach, which ties into the book's title. Mr. Sadoshima attributes his ability to "create hits" to rigorously practicing this "hypothesis-verification" framework. If you're thinking, "I do that much myself," hold on a second. Aren't you gathering information before formulating your hypothesis?

The crucial point is to "form the hypothesis first"! (I was unfortunately part of the "gather first" camp!) Mr. Sadoshima warns that following the sequence "information → hypothesis" leads to "precedentism." He emphasizes that when creating something new, it's vital to start from "data that doesn't yet exist in the world" – things like "information that vaguely accumulates in daily life" or "your own personal values."

To avoid precedent-based thinking, formulate your hypothesis "first."
Then gather information to reinforce or refine that hypothesis. This sequence is crucial. Thinking in the order "Hypothesis → Information → Reconstruct Hypothesis → Execution → Verification"—rather than "Information → Hypothesis → Execution → Verification" —allows you to break through the status quo. (P.27)

Collecting past data alone won't lead to anything new. (P.28)

Through his daily interactions with authors, Mr. Sadoshima developed the hypothesis that "agent services are precisely what's needed to revitalize Japan's publishing and content business." He gathered information from overseas to verify this, then launched Cork. Even after founding the company, he continues to fight to make this new venture succeed, repeatedly verifying and reconstructing his hypothesis based on feedback from various sources.

The "Alien Perspective" for Seeing Essence

Next is the thinking method called "thinking from an alien's perspective." This is a way to consider the essence of things with a "completely blank slate," free from all common sense, past conventions, and other superficial elements. The method is simple (though whether you can do it immediately is another matter).

When I consider the essence of things, I think, "If I were an alien, how would I think about this?" (P.60)

Aliens have no fixed notions like labels or preconceived images, nor do they have the concept of industries.Therefore, only the pure business model—the skeleton—emerges. (P.62)

This book presents several examples of re-examining things using an "alien perspective." As a clear example, let's consider "What is the business strength of a 'publisher'?" So, what do you think is their strength? Yes! I think it's "the ability to create content"!

Mr. Sadoshima, applying this "alien perspective," redefined the "essence of the publishing business" as: "The strength of publishers lies (or lay) in 'distribution.'" I was completely blown away again. He explained that the strength was the publishing industry's system of bookstores and wholesalers, which exclusively delivered books nationwide to bookstores—the channel connecting them to readers. He further explains that the current publishing slump stems from the weakening of this channel due to e-commerce development, not from any major shift in publishers' content creation capabilities. Therefore, to improve profitability, publishers should focus on rebuilding distribution rather than solely improving content quality.

Now is the "Age of Story"

Finally, we introduce how Mr. Sadoshima, who employs this "hypothesis-testing approach" and "alien perspective," views the current era. He states that today is the "Age of Story."

・The "Age of Things": When goods were absolutely scarce, and companies that could supply them won.
・The "Age of Goods and Quality," where companies that could produce high-quality goods prevailed
・The "Era of Goods, Quality, and Design," where design-oriented thinking permeated various industries
・The "Era of Goods, Quality, Design, and Affordability" in the 2000s, where affordability became a key factor

Society has undergone this evolution. Finally, in the 2010s, the value that could be added to the product itself reached its limit. The illusion that "having the product should bring happiness" no longer holds.
"People want products because they empathize with the story behind them"
"We want to fill our hearts by empathizing with the story."
Mr. Sadoshima observes that we have now entered this era.

He predicts that just as designers permeated various industries during the "Age of Design," the "Age of Story" will see the importance of editors and writers who can weave resonant narratives.

Alongside "The Era of Story," keywords like "empathy," "personal relevance," and "participation" also emerge. All have become essential elements in current communication planning and campaign planning. Indeed, it seems fair to say that we are now truly in "The Era of Story," extending far beyond mere content creation.

In Conclusion

While many other thought processes and methodologies are introduced, I believe the most crucial and indispensable reason Mr. Sadoshima can involve others while concretizing his hypotheses lies above all in his exceptional ability to "infect others with his passion (enthusiasm)."

Actually, I met Mr. Sadoshima and spoke with him over ten years ago.

It was at a friend's wedding shortly after I started working. Mr. Sadoshima was giving a speech as the representative of the friend's friends (a bit complicated, isn't it?). Of course, I imagine he was already active within Kodansha at that time, but his fame hadn't yet spread widely, so I knew him only as "a close friend from my friend's school days." However, the speech he delivered was so outstanding that I, who should have been extremely shy, found myself rushing over during the reception afterward. Before I knew it, I was firmly shaking his hands and saying, "Your speech was amazing." Unfortunately, I no longer remember the speech's content, but I clearly recall being most surprised by myself for acting so boldly, driven by my own emotions that were ignited and set ablaze.

This book showcases that ability in its epilogue-like position, "In Closing: Embark on an Adventure to Realize Your Hypotheses." While Chapters 1 through 6 introduced logic-based thinking methods, practical approaches, and perspectives on things, it's in this very last part that the author's emotion explodes, igniting the reader. It's passionate.

If I ever have the chance to meet Mr. Sadoshima again, I'd like to shake his hand firmly with both of mine for the first time in over a decade and tell him, "This book was truly excellent."