What "Weather Merchandising" brings to business and advertising. Leverage weather information for more effective strategies.

Have you ever heard the term "weather merchandising"? It's long been known that product sales fluctuate with the weather. Building on this logic, "weather merchandising" emerged—a practice of developing sales strategies based on weather information. Recently, systems have also been developed that incorporate real-time weather data into digital advertising. Applying this weather merchandising concept could enable more effective and user-centric ad delivery, couldn't it? Let's explore business and advertising strategies based on weather information.

Consumer behavior is influenced by changes in the weather

Have you ever heard that "ice cream sales increase when temperatures exceed 25°C"? This is a prime example illustrating the link between physiological desires—like craving something cold on a hot day—and consumer behavior.

Products like ice cream, where sales increase proportionally as perceived temperature rises, are called "heat-sensitive products." Conversely, products that sell better as perceived temperature drops are called "cool-sensitive products." Examples include beer, cold noodles, iced coffee, and curry rice as "heat-sensitive products," while oden, hot pot, hot sake, and sweet bean buns are "cool-sensitive products."

On the other hand, data (analyzed by the Business Meteorological Research Institute, 2014) shows that "when temperatures exceed 32°C (90.6°F), ice cream sales decline significantly, shifting to shaved ice as the top seller." The reasons are thought to be that as temperatures rise, the cooler texture of shaved ice becomes more appealing, and as it gets hotter, basal metabolism decreases, leading people to seek low-calorie, low-fat foods. Indeed, in the height of summer, you crave something cool and refreshing, don't you? This data seems quite plausible based on personal experience, doesn't it?

Beyond temperature, sales of certain products are also influenced by weather and precipitation. Camping and gardening supplies sell well on sunny days, while umbrellas and rain boots sell well on rainy days. During typhoons or heavy snow, items like dry cell batteries, candles, shovels, and winter tires sell well as people prepare for emergencies.

Predicting these consumption trends that shift with weather conditions and linking them to sales strategies is what "weather merchandising" is all about.

Weather merchandising enables profit growth and food loss reduction

Weather merchandising, which anticipates customer needs based on the weather, holds great potential. Let's explore its applications and benefits.

・Increase profits through demand forecasting based on weather information

Understanding the "base temperature" at which sales surge significantly allows you to implement sales promotion measures based on weather information, leading to increased revenue. Knowing in advance that temperatures will rise enables you to stock more heat-sensitive products, display them prominently in-store, or run advertisements. Of course, predictions vary based on factors like season, weather, and location, not just temperature alone. Combining and analyzing various data sets is crucial.

・Reducing Food Waste and Excess Inventory

Forecasting demand also helps adjust production and sales volumes. In the food industry, this can reduce food waste. For example, when it rains, fewer people attend baseball or soccer games, so reducing the production of boxed lunches sold at venues can minimize unsold inventory. Similarly, adjusting convenience store product orders based on weather information could reduce losses. This approach can also lead to lower delivery costs and reduced excess inventory.

While weather merchandising has long been utilized across various sectors, recent technological advancements have increased the volume of data available for analysis and forecasting, improving accuracy. This has made it possible to effectively leverage weather data in more scenarios. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) also researches the impact of weather on various sectors, including supermarkets, convenience stores, soft drinks, electronics, and apparel. It provides various data usable for weather merchandising, such as survey data and historical weather records. The more abundant such data becomes, the higher the accuracy of weather forecasts, enabling more detailed and timely reflection in sales strategies.

The Japan Weather Association and Dentsu Inc. have jointly developed a tool called "Urebi Yori." This tool constantly reflects daily updated nationwide weather forecast information, such as average daily temperature, sunshine duration, precipitation duration, and humidity, enabling demand forecasting for products by area and category. It can capture changes in demand up to two weeks in advance, allowing marketing initiatives to be launched without missing sales opportunities. This article details demand forecasting models, including UrebiYori.

Delivering the optimal ad for the user's "now" using weather merchandising logic

We've explained weather merchandising so far, but this type of analysis and forecasting based on weather data is also applied to digital advertising.

Digital ads delivered based on weather forecasts have been deployed for some time. Major search engines and other platforms also use area-specific weather data for targeted delivery, enhancing appeal effectiveness. While traditional "mass advertising" like TV and newspapers found it challenging to flexibly change content based on daily weather, digital advertising—capable of responding instantly to real-time information—is well-suited for initiatives linked to weather data. Below are examples of advertising services synchronized with weather conditions.

・Weather Forecast App × Ad Delivery Service

This service delivers ads within smartphone weather forecast apps. It combines high-resolution weather data from meteorological information companies with user location data to automatically deliver ads tailored to the current local weather conditions. This allows timely engagement with users who consistently check weather information daily.

・Video Streaming Service × Weather-Triggered Ads

A certain video streaming platform delivers targeted video ads based on user-registered information like age, gender, and location. It also enables ads to be displayed conditionally based on specific weather or temperature conditions.

Using such services enables more effective approaches, like displaying cold drink ads on hot days. Strategies like directing users to physical stores on sunny days and to online shopping sites on rainy days are also possible.

Weather-based ad delivery services are also emerging on digital signage in cities and public transportation. One digital signage content delivery service integrates with a weather-linked ad delivery system, providing a mechanism to display ads matching current weather conditions on digital signage. This enables shopping malls to show recommended products or stores based on the weather, while hotels and transportation providers can suggest weather-appropriate sightseeing plans.

The proverb "When the wind blows, the barrel maker profits" means that an event can have unexpected ripple effects. Applying the logic of weather merchandising, however, means that "When the wind blows, the barrel maker profits by 'running ads'." Developing the right strategy can further enhance advertising effectiveness.

While weather merchandising techniques have existed for some time, improved weather forecasting accuracy now enables more precise sales planning. Furthermore, advances in digital technology have made it possible to effectively utilize weather data in digital advertising. The strength of digital advertising lies in its ability to display personalized information based on user attributes, search terms, and browsing history. Combining this with weather data allows advertisers to understand how needs change based on weather, temperature, humidity, and other factors, enabling them to deliver ads that resonate with users' "current" feelings. Leveraging the principles of weather merchandising can be expected to further enhance advertising performance.