The National Association of Commercial Broadcasters in Japan (NABJ) recently announced its forecast for television and radio operating revenues for fiscal years 2013-2014. For FY2013, television operating revenues (for 127 terrestrial commercial TV stations) are projected to increase by 1.4% year-on-year (down from the initial forecast of 1.7% growth), marking the second consecutive year of revenue growth.
The breakdown shows spot advertising revised upward from the initial forecast of 2.6% growth to 4.1% growth. Time advertising (time slots + production revenue) was revised downward from 0.6% growth to a 1.4% decline. By region, Tokyo/Osaka/Nagoya is projected at 1.5% growth, while local areas are at 0.9% growth. For spot advertising, Tokyo/Osaka/Nagoya is at 4.6% growth, and local areas are at 3.0% growth. For time-slot advertising, the Tokyo/Osaka/Nagoya region is projected to decrease by 1.9%, while local areas are projected to decrease by 1.3%. For independent stations' time-slot advertising, the forecast was revised upward from an initial 0.6% increase to a 6.0% increase.
For FY2013, BS digital TV operating revenue is projected at ¥75 billion (14.2% increase year-on-year) for the six NAB member stations combined. While the household penetration rate of 72.5% suggests approaching maturity, time slots and direct-response TV programs remain robust.
Radio operating revenue is projected to decrease by 1.6% year-on-year (initial forecast: -0.7%). Mid- and short-wave radio was revised downward to a 2.3% decrease (previous forecast: 1.6% decrease), while FM radio was revised downward to a 0.6% decrease (previous forecast: 0.5% increase). The breakdown shows spot advertising up 0.5% and time-based advertising down 1.5%. Spot advertising increased 0.2% for mid- and short-wave radio and 0.8% for FM radio. Time slots decreased 1.8% for medium/shortwave and 1.0% for FM. For FY2014, television is forecast to increase 0.3% year-on-year, while radio is projected to decrease 1.4%. Television is expected to see a 0.4% increase for Tokyo/Osaka/Nagoya and a 0.1% increase for local stations. Radio is forecast to decrease 1.7% for medium/shortwave and 1.0% for FM.
