Experts Discuss "Future Disaster Prevention Measures"
#1 What is a Highly Disaster-Resilient Society?
To achieve the highly resilient society we aim for, there are two key points. One is enhancing the reliability of the urban living environment, composed of buildings and infrastructure. The other is enhancing the reliability of the people who use it.
For example, sudden volcanic eruptions are extremely dangerous, yet we routinely enjoy hot springs, utilize geothermal energy, and appreciate beautiful landscapes—volcanoes provide us with various benefits. The threats that cause us harm or disruption simultaneously bestow blessings upon us. Therefore, focusing solely on the negatives in a given situation while discarding the diverse positives is not rational. It is crucial to view disaster prevention measures as a way to increase societal resilience—reducing harm while increasing benefits.
Since the time and resources available for disaster prevention measures are finite, appropriate prioritization is necessary, typically using the magnitude of risk as the indicator. Risk is expressed as the product of hazard and vulnerability. Hazard is the strength and extent of an external force multiplied by its probability of occurrence. Vulnerability, translated as "weakness" in Japanese, can be simply explained as the number of weak elements within the area susceptible to the hazard's impact. Consequently, risk becomes the product of the scale of damage and the probability of occurrence. Therefore, the priority for infrequent, massive disasters tends to be low, but there is a pitfall here. Prioritizing based on risk magnitude is only valid for disasters whose scale can be managed through post-disaster response. Disasters exceeding that scale cannot be restored or rebuilt through post-disaster response alone.
Therefore, it is crucial to effectively utilize the time before such a disaster strikes to reduce the scale of damage to a level that can be restored and rebuilt using our own resources. The damage anticipated from the massive earthquakes along the Nankai Trough and the direct-hit earthquake in the Tokyo metropolitan area, which are currently feared, are precisely disasters of this scale. According to Japan's Central Disaster Management Council, they could exceed 40% to 60% of our nation's GDP. I advocate for " comprehensive disaster management " that combines preemptive measures and post-disaster responses capable of handling disasters of this magnitude.
#2 Disaster Imagination: Imagination Leads to Response Capability
Two negative spirals underlie the failure to plan and implement appropriate disaster countermeasures at both the citizen and administrative levels. One is: "We don't know what will happen → So we don't know what to do → So we do nothing." The other is: "We don't know what will happen → So we don't know what appropriate countermeasures are → So we don't achieve sufficient effectiveness." In either case, the initial problem is "not knowing what will happen," and resolving this is paramount.
The evacuation drills and disaster preparedness training many of you have experienced—told to "Do A, do B, don't do C"—lead to a shutdown of critical thinking. This is why we still hear instructions like "Turn off the stove if you feel a jolt." Today, automatic shut-off systems during earthquakes eliminate the need to extinguish flames during intense shaking, and this action actually increases the risk of burns. Diving under a nearby table is also extremely dangerous, considering pots and pans might fall from above while cooking. Yet people in autopilot mode take this action without questioning it.
What's crucial is developing the ability to concretely imagine what will happen around you over time, based on the conditions at the time of the disaster: the season, weather, day of the week, time of day, your location, and your role. I call this ability disaster imagination. Humans absolutely cannot prepare for or respond appropriately to things they cannot imagine. Based on disaster imagination, you can minimize the impact of disasters on yourself by: - Identifying your personal disaster preparedness challenges beforehand and implementing solutions; - Anticipating the situations you will face after a disaster strikes, and taking actions that improve those situations.
#3 Emergency Uses Are an Extension of Peacetime Uses
It's not wise to overly emphasize disasters just because it's disaster prevention. Considering continuity and efficiency, activities, systems, and various products related to disaster prevention should be viewed as having uses in emergencies that extend from their peacetime applications. Preparations solely for a "once-in-a-decade event" lack motivation, and unfamiliar items won't be usable in an emergency. In this sense, the " +Sonae " concept – "Don't treat disaster preparedness as something special; add peace of mind to your everyday life!" – resonates deeply. New ideas require new words, and "+Sonae" is one such term.
The same applies to disaster stockpiles. Before requesting massive public-funded stockpiles from the government, a detailed survey of food in refrigerators and storage units in ordinary households for daily use reveals that currently, 70% of households already possess enough food to sustain all family members for over eight days, considering nutritional balance. Regarding the impact of lifeline disruptions, lighting, for example, can be secured long-term using low-power LED lights and batteries. For city gas, using a portable gas stove for cooking at home means a 250-gram canister provides about 70 minutes of high-heat cooking. Even if the water supply stops and taps run dry, bottled water can cover immediate needs. Our research shows that simply increasing everyday supplies slightly enables self-sufficient living for about a week immediately after a disaster without undue hardship.
The importance of disaster preparedness, in terms of scale and time, follows the order: "self-help (by individuals), mutual aid (by communities), public aid (by government)." No matter how hard the government and other administrative bodies try, they cannot quantitatively provide sufficient response to the massive earthquake disasters we now face. When flash floods occur due to torrential downpours, governments can certainly build facilities designed to minimize damage as a post-disaster measure. However, it is impossible for government personnel to stand beside every single citizen during a flood and guide them to safety. In a disaster, you are the one who can protect yourself. If anyone can help, it will be your neighbors and your community. That is why the order is "self-help, mutual aid, public aid."
Moreover, considering the increasingly severe aging population and declining birthrate, along with fiscal challenges, the "public assistance" many currently depend on will inevitably shrink. It is crucial that citizens and corporations, as the primary agents of "self-help," properly consider disaster prevention and take appropriate, autonomous actions. To achieve this, "mutual aid" must encourage "self-help," and "public assistance" must encourage both "self-help" and "mutual aid."
#4 Potential of Disaster Prevention Business: Shifting from Cost to Value
Conventional disaster prevention that relies solely on appealing to the conscience of citizens and businesses has its limits. Unless engaging in and participating in disaster prevention generates benefits, sustained activity becomes impossible. To actively involve the private sector, disaster prevention measures must be treated not as CSR (Corporate Social Responsibility) but as business. It is crucial to foster an evaluation where "Companies involved in disaster prevention business have high social status, pay their employees well, and are cool." Achieving this will attract young talent in droves.
Moving forward, we must shift the positioning of disaster prevention measures from "cost to value." Disaster prevention efforts often become one-off events because both governments and companies view them as costs. Moreover, the value of disaster prevention measures is often only recognized when a disaster occurs. Instead, we must transform disaster prevention into value or even a brand, viewing it as something that brings benefits to the implementing entity, regardless of whether a disaster occurs or not.
I place great importance on observing both Japan and other nations. Only by viewing both can we truly grasp Japan's unique characteristics and its broader applicability. Japan's disaster prevention capabilities rank among the world's best. Taking these approaches and technologies to other countries could benefit many regions. However, we must not impose them. We need to carefully consider the characteristics of the recipient region and thoroughly assess whether they will be accepted. When dealing with developing countries, practical solutions require careful consideration: Is the technology locally implementable? Are materials accessible? Will it be culturally, religiously, historically, and traditionally acceptable to locals? Is the price appropriate?
On the other hand, the number of people with sufficiently high economic power has increased in the current Asian region, so I believe the potential market for disaster prevention business targeting these individuals is large. It is extremely important for both Japanese companies and Japan's disaster prevention efforts that Japanese companies consider and advance disaster prevention technology and systems as key content for international business.
