All for that crispy crunch! Marketing strategy for "Choco Monaka Jumbo" utilizing weather data

The crispy, fragrant monaka shell, the smooth vanilla ice cream, and the rich chocolate bar. Morinaga Confectionery's long-selling ice cream, "Choco Monaka Jumbo," achieved "20 consecutive years of sales growth" in 2020.

Under the slogan "All for that crispy crunch!", Morinaga focused on delivering freshly made deliciousness through "Freshness Marketing" that fully utilizes weather data. This report covers a webinar that delved into the company's "Freshness Marketing".

※This article is based on the webinar titled "The Direction of Next-Generation Supply Chain × Marketing: Latest Case Studies of Choco Monaka Jumbo's Freshness Marketing and Weather Data Utilization," held by the Japan Weather Association on August 30, 2021, and written from the perspective of the Web Denpo News editorial team.

 

To preserve its crisp texture, they avoid stockpiling

Morinaga Confectionery's "Choco Monaka" was born nearly half a century ago in 1972. It underwent several renovations, including capacity changes, and was renamed "Choco Monaka Deluxe" in 1980 and "Choco Monaka Jumbo" in 1996. In fiscal year 2020, it achieved "20 consecutive years of sales growth." Azusa Murata of the company's Frozen Dessert Marketing Department emphasizes that a major factor in this sustained sales growth was the emphasis placed on "freshness" starting around 2000.

"With monaka ice cream, over time or due to storage conditions, moisture from the ice cream can transfer to the monaka shell, compromising its texture. Maintaining the crispness of the wafer shell over an extended period was a significant challenge. However, our employees were convinced that if we could offer customers a delicious, freshly made crisp texture, Choco Monaka Jumbo would sell even better. That's why we launched a marketing campaign focused on 'freshness'.

We maintain inventory at the absolute minimum throughout the distribution chain, ensuring 'Choco Monaka Jumbo' reaches stores within a very short time after production. To achieve this, we've worked on building a meticulous production plan and manufacturing system. Typically, ice cream is produced months in advance to build up inventory and meet the huge summer demand. However, 'Choco Monaka Jumbo' enters the summer season without any pre-production stockpiling whatsoever. This means we're taking a huge risk that defies industry norms," says Murata.

Murata states that demand forecasting using weather data accelerated this "freshness marketing." So, how is weather data currently being utilized in corporate marketing? In the next part, we will introduce the Japan Weather Association.

Accelerating the use of increasingly accurate weather data in corporate marketing

"Companies are affected by weather conditions like cool summers, intense heatwaves, mild winters, or severe winters, impacting product sales and customer traffic. Demand forecasting using weather data helps solve challenges like lost opportunities from stockouts or waste from overproduction,"

This is according to Kumi Ogoshi, Senior Analyst at the Japan Meteorological Association. She explains that compared to 20 years ago when weather radar observations were taken only once every 30 minutes, the accuracy of meteorological data has now improved to the point where anyone can view rain cloud radar data minute by minute. "Thanks to advancements like supercomputer implementation, meteorological observations have become more comprehensive. Weather forecast accuracy is said to have improved by 30% over the past 15 years. Consequently, high-precision demand forecasting using high-precision weather predictions has become feasible in recent years," says Ogoshi.

The association leverages high-precision weather data to offer product demand forecasting services, utilized by numerous companies. "We collect weather data from around the world, enhance forecast accuracy with proprietary technology, and develop various prediction models. We also receive POS (sales) data for each product from companies, analyze the weather conditions under which products sell well by area, and provide these results," said Ogoshi.

The association also conducts its own cross-market analyses. For example, it investigates how sales change by percentage for various product categories when the weekly average temperature rises by 1 degree Celsius. "In late August 2020, sunscreen showed the strongest temperature response, with sales changing by 10% for every 1-degree temperature change. Next were ice cream, antiperspirants, sports drinks, lacto ice, and beauty/health drinks, which were also significantly affected by temperature changes," explained Ogoshi, citing the data.

Toshio Nakano, eco×Logi Project Leader in the Meteorological Digital Services Section of the association's Social and Disaster Prevention Business Division, states that achieving the digital transformation (DX) advancing at companies in recent years requires both "offensive" and "defensive" data utilization.

"Offensive data utilization deepens customer understanding and fosters closer customer relationships, while defensive data utilization reduces strain, inconsistencies, and waste through supply chain digitization. Furthermore, sharing data between companies enables society as a whole to solve problems that a single company cannot resolve alone. We are currently working with multiple companies to tackle various challenges."

Utilizing Weather Data for "Freshness Marketing"

The Japan Meteorological Association's high-precision weather data is also extensively utilized in the "Freshness Marketing" strategy for "Choco Monaka Jumbo." Morinaga & Co. began its collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Association in 2017. Hideo Shintani from the company's Logistics Department explained that improving Freshness Marketing hinges on three key points.

"First is 'weather forecasting.' We utilize the Japan Weather Association's accurate weather information to understand conditions during Golden Week and peak seasons. Second is 'nationwide demand forecasting.' We use the nationwide demand forecasts, developed based on weather predictions, for monthly planning and similar purposes. Third is 'regional demand forecasting.' They provide us with weekly demand forecasts based on weather predictions for various regions across the country, which we use to mitigate uneven distribution."

Furthermore, when creating sales plans, short-term, medium-term, and long-term demand forecasts—such as 14 days ahead, 3 months ahead, and 6 months ahead—are utilized. These are used not only for monthly planning but also for creating sales plans for products targeting Golden Week and peak seasons. In addition to these demand forecasts, the key elements are frequent forecast revisions and information sharing.

"When the rainy season ended early in June 2018, we received a demand forecast revision from the Japan Weather Association. Following this revision, we implemented emergency production increases from early to mid-July, enabling stable supply despite demand exceeding our projections. Another example was July 2020, when the rainy season ended late for the second consecutive year. Through prior information sharing, we gradually reduced production from mid- to late July, avoiding unnecessary inventory."

Optimizing TV commercial airtime based on weather data contributed to sales

A significant factor in achieving increased sales for "Choco Monaka Jumbo" was the ability to optimize TV commercial airtime based on weather forecasts.

In fact, the trend of utilizing weather data for marketing is expanding into the advertising domain. Dentsu Inc. launched "Weather Enhanced Marketing (WEM)" in 2018, a framework that leverages weather data from the Japan Meteorological Association to advance advertising marketing.

Hiroyuki Sakuragi, Head of the Content Data Department at Dentsu Inc.'s Data & Technology Center, introduced three solutions within WEM.

The first is "Urebi Yori." This solution analyzes purchase data for approximately 160 items whose consumer demand is influenced by weather factors, combined with weather data, using proprietary methods. It indexes and forecasts changes in demand. By capturing the start and end times of seasonal product seasons and the surge in demand during campaign periods, it can be used to inform decisions on various marketing initiatives, including ad placements ( release here ).

The second solution is "RICH FLOW." Using AI and weather data, it optimally rearranges TV spot ad slots for multiple clients with different needs, enabling effective ad placements ( release here ).

The third is "Multi Impact Switcher 2.0." This solution controls the on/off delivery of digital ads and the replacement of creative assets in response to demand changes driven by factors like weather.

"We will continue to develop solutions that leverage the value of demand forecasting from the optimal perspective across the entire marketing spectrum to address clients' increasingly complex and diverse challenges," stated Mr. Sakuragi.

Morinaga & Co. leveraged two solutions developed by Dentsu Inc.—"Urebi Yori" and "RICH FLOW"—to forecast daily demand and adjust TV commercial volume. By running ads at optimal timing, they heightened consumers' desire to eat "Choco Monaka Jumbo."

Through "Freshness Marketing," which fully leverages weather data, sales (shipment basis) of "Choco Monaka Jumbo" in July and August 2020 increased by 107.8% compared to the previous year (July: 102.4%, August: 112.7% compared to the same months the previous year).

With climate change becoming increasingly significant, the value of weather data in marketing will undoubtedly continue to grow. Through this webinar, we gained insight into new possibilities for utilizing weather data.