Moe Moe

Somehow, this column has made it to 2014 without getting canceled. It's ironic that a column about diffusion hasn't spread at all, but deliberately not mentioning that is the kindness of an adult, so please bear with me on that one.

Now, most people encounter the phenomenon of diffusion at a fairly advanced stage. Not many folks have the time to observe diffusion from start to finish. But watching that process unfold is actually quite fascinating.

It starts with scattered personal thoughts being tweeted here and there. But once someone posts a photo or video clip on social media, that's when something resembling "spreading" begins. Roughly speaking, the flow goes like this:

Someone who directly encountered the ad tweets about it first.
↓
People who see it secondhand on social media spread it further.
↓
It gets picked up by summary sites or online news outlets, gaining even more traction.

If influential individuals or media get involved along the way, it can act as a trigger and suddenly explode. Of course, the routes of spread aren't limited to just one; multiple waves of diffusion at different scales happen simultaneously.

So how does this spread end? Well... it just sort of fades away. The frequency of tweets gradually decreases until it falls silent. While the current SNS population is roughly over 50 million, timelines scroll by quickly, so people miss things. Even limiting it to those genuinely interested, reaching everyone is quite difficult. No matter how strong the momentum, it eventually dies down.

Observing this flow, I thought diffusion resembles a fire burning. Once it crosses a certain ignition point, it spreads rapidly, but when there's nothing left to burn, it slowly dies out even without intervention. Just when you think it's gone, a few embers remain, ready to reignite with the right trigger. The previous example of the Yamanote Line (see Column #4) was very similar to how a fire reignites when exposed to fresh air.

Using fire as an analogy makes the nature of this phenomenon easier to grasp. Just as we've long said things like "the boom caught fire" or "○○ is hot right now" even before the internet, the desire to "tell someone" is like the transfer of heat. Once you've told someone else, your own enthusiasm cools down. Observing this, you rarely see individuals post multiple times about the same ad. People really are creatures that cool off easily.

So, thinking of ad creation as "fire-starting" might be a pretty good hint. If you get help from kindling (core users who will speak up) to make it burn easier... or if you aim first for hot spots (where public interest is concentrated)... The term "viral marketing" probably came from the same idea.

But personally, I feel that even if we don't call it viral marketing, the increase in communication solely chasing buzz, where spreading becomes the sole goal, is problematic. The result often seems to stop at "it just became a talking point." Of course, I understand the era demands reach, and it's better to be talked about than ignored, but that alone isn't enough. We really need to think hard about what remains after the flames die down.

Even with the same fire, there are times when we need the fleeting brilliance of fireworks to instantly brighten everyone's mood. Other times, we need the comforting warmth of a small, cozy hearth fire. Or maybe we need to roast some sweet potatoes in it to fill the air with a delicious aroma. After the message is delivered, what emotions do we want to evoke in people? And more crucially, how do we connect those feelings to the relationship with the company or product? That's where our skill is truly tested. Crafting communication that considers this entire process is what I believe defines the work of a true professional. It's incredibly difficult, though. That's precisely why it's so incredibly interesting. This job.

Well, that's all for this time. By the way, the next one is the final installment. Meaning there's one more deadline to go... Personally, I feel like I'm already completely burned out...