Visualizing the Desired Future and Outlining Mid-to-Long-Term Strategies: The Meaning of "Dentsu Inc. Future Finder 100" (Part 1)

In an era where the future is increasingly difficult to foresee, formulating mid- to long-term business strategies requires understanding how people and society will evolve. In December 2023, the cross-organizational Future Business Creation Lab within the Dentsu Group developed and launched the "Dentsu Future Finder 100, " which forecasts societal realities in 2040 and supports client companies in creating future-oriented businesses. What background led to the creation of "Dentsu Future Finder 100," and what corporate challenges does it address? We spoke with Kentaro Yoshida of Dentsu Inc., founder of the Future Business Creation Lab. This interview is presented in two parts.

An organization addressing future challenges in an era of shifting value axes

Q. In December 2023, the Future Business Creation Lab launched the 'Dentsu Inc. Future Finder 100.' It's described as compiling hints for envisioning a better future. What kind of tool is it?

Yoshida: "Dentsu Inc. Future Finder 100" is an information tool compiling hints for envisioning a better future, organized into 8 categories and 100 themes. The front side features "Future Finder," while the back side features "Future Chance." Future Finder presents predictions for what is likely to be realized by 2040. These predictions are based on quantitative data from reliable external sources and forecasts made by "future professionals" within the Dentsu Group. These professionals are involved in developing future businesses and services for companies and possess specialized expertise across various fields. For example: "Not just physical, but mental health management becomes mandatory. Mental care and management become commonplace in social life." Meanwhile, Future Opportunities compiles signs of the future, such as "People like this are likely to emerge," "Society is likely to become like this," and "Businesses like this are likely to be created."

Q. First, could you explain what kind of organization the Future Business Creation Lab is and its background?

Yoshida: It's a cross-organizational unit formed by Dentsu Inc. and seven domestic Dentsu Group companies (*1) to discover a company's "future value" through a unique approach. Since its launch in 2021, it has supported corporate business growth by providing insights into future consumer lifestyles, developing businesses and products from a future perspective, and conducting workshops.

Two main reasons led to the establishment of the Future Business Creation Lab. First, we wanted to build an organization aligned with societal changes. We often talk about shifting from GDP (Gross Domestic Product) to GDW (Gross Domestic Well-being), and we believe the timing for a shift in the value axes prioritized by society and companies is precisely now. Fundamentally, companies must declare to shareholders, "We will increase sales in this way to raise the stock price." However, Japan's population is visibly declining, and relying solely on economic indicators like selling more goods has reached its limits. Furthermore, the SDGs perspective is a crucial element. Producing large quantities requires consuming significant materials and energy, generating substantial waste in the process. We have entered an era where mass production and merely boosting sales are no longer the sole measure of a company's value.

However, while companies understand this, they have already committed to shareholders to continue operating along their existing growth trajectory, making a simple shift difficult. Amidst a changing future, there is a sense of crisis that continuing business as usual is unsustainable, yet many companies don't know how to proceed... Recognizing this growing challenge among businesses, we consolidated the organizations and talent within the Dentsu Group previously involved in future business creation and service development, forming a new specialized organization. From a corporate perspective, it's clear: "If you're troubled about the future, consult Dentsu Inc." By organically integrating and leveraging the expertise of specialists across diverse fields, we believe this organization can contribute to creating future value for all companies.

To realize a society where the next generation looks forward to the future

Q. So, you established the Future Business Creation Research Institute to respond to societal needs. What was the other reason?

Yoshida: The other reason was to undertake initiatives that would allow the next generation to look forward to the future, and to establish a team dedicated to that purpose. This stems from my own personal experience. One day, my eldest son, who was in junior high at the time, said to me, "I wish I had been born in the Showa era." He said, "The Showa era seems like it would have been fun." When I considered why my son would think that way, I wondered if it was because today's children are only taught about problems. Issues like aging populations and environmental problems make them perceive the future as deteriorating rather than growing.

Q. It's true; from today's children's perspective, they might well say, "The Showa era seems fun, doesn't it?"

Yoshida: I spent my adolescence from the late Showa 60s into the Heisei era. I experienced the excitement of rapid technological evolution, but today's children find it harder to feel hopeful about the future. Surveys of Generation Alpha and Generation Z show over half express anxiety about the future. I realized this was problematic and decided we needed to establish a team capable of shifting perspectives toward a more positive vision of the future, so the next generation could look forward with hope.

Q. So, to create a society where the next generation can look forward to the future, it's crucial not to start with the problems, but to paint a future that excites people.

Yoshida: Exactly. I think we first need to think more deeply about things like well-being – "What is true happiness, anyway?" Companies and products that successfully design around this are seeing their value rise. For example, many of the big hit games in recent years let you experience the kind of fun we had in the Showa era, getting excited together with friends in front of the TV, but in a way that fits today's times. Even though you're alone in front of the screen, you gather in the same space across the network and enjoy it together. Things designed well for our times like this spread widely as valuable offerings to consumers.

Companies that start with a vision for what they want to create and think "let's use technology as a means to that end" produce outputs that are completely different from companies that start with a problem and think "let's use technology for immediate efficiency." This kind of backcasting thinking is also the foundation of "Dentsu Inc. Future Finder 100."

"While we can predict technological evolution to some extent, we cannot fully foresee how society will change as a result," says Mr. Yoshida. The Future Business Research Institute is actively collecting and analyzing prediction data for 2040 from reliable sources, deliberately approaching this challenge. In the second part, we will delve deeper into how "Dentsu Inc. Future Finder 100" is utilized and its future prospects.

※1 Dentsu Inc., Dentsu East Japan Inc., Dentsu West Japan Inc., Dentsu Digital Inc., Dentsu Consulting Inc., DENTSU SOKEN INC., Dentsu Macromill Insight, Inc.