"Develop the ability to discuss objectively Aim for a tourism-based nation from a business perspective" David Atkinson

David Atkinson, president of Konishi Art & Craft Co., is currently active in the restoration of cultural properties. He has an unusual background, having first come to Japan as an analyst for a securities firm and gaining attention for his reports on the reality of non-performing loans after the bubble burst. Yuri Ikeda of DENTSU SOKEN INC. spoke with him about Japan as seen through the eyes of a British analyst.

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Develop the ability to discuss objectively and pursue a tourism-based nation from a business perspective

Japan: One of the few advanced nations with a population exceeding 100 million

Ikeda: Based on your experience transitioning from an analyst well-versed in Japanese finance to the head of a long-established company protecting national treasures and important cultural properties, you published the book 'British Analyst: Protecting Japan's National Treasures' last year.

Atkinson: I'd always wanted to write a book on cultural heritage and tourism. Many readers told me the book contained new information for them and found it stimulating. Increased media coverage, including TV programs, also helped introduce the world of cultural heritage restoration and the work of Konishi Art & Craft's artisans. For a time, reporters visited the Nikko Toshogu Shrine restoration site almost weekly.

Ikeda: Furthermore, this past June you published two more books, one on tourism and another focusing on Japan's strengths and weaknesses. What do you consider to be Japan's strengths?

Atkinson: For example , looking at productivity data, Japan's nominal GDP ranked third globally in 2014. This has long been attributed to technological prowess. However, its GDP per capita was around $36,000, placing it 26th worldwide. The US is slightly higher at about $50,000, while European nations are all around $40,000, meaning Japan actually lags behind. While Japan has outstanding industries like automotive and high-tech manufacturing, it also has sectors with extremely low productivity. This means its per capita figures become comparable to other nations. Of course, its technological prowess is outstanding, but that alone doesn't explain its third-place ranking as a country. The reason lies in its large population. Japan's true strength is actually being a "populous developed nation."

Ikeda: That's the first time I've heard that argument.

Atkinson: I haven't heard it before either (laughs). But in reality, among the 12 countries with populations over 100 million today, only the US and Japan are developed nations. Becoming an advanced nation requires commensurate economic growth and governance capabilities. Countries with populations around 50 to 60 million, like European nations, tend to achieve advanced status more easily. In that sense, Japan's ability to rapidly increase its population from the postwar ruins, govern it effectively, and achieve economic growth stems from foundational strengths like diligence. Maintaining such a large population as an advanced nation is undoubtedly one of Japan's strengths.

Let's stop woolly thinking and have a constructive discussion

Ikeda: Conversely, what are the weaknesses?

Atkinson: The lack of calm, data-driven discussions like the one we just had . In Japan, discussions often remain vague, prone to assumptions and unfounded speculation. In the UK, we liken this lack of clarity in debate and thought to woolly thinking – and that's precisely the situation here. It seems like problems are constantly being postponed without resolution. Even when data is presented, it's often interpreted in a way that suits their preconceived conclusions, and no one points this out.

Ikeda: Indeed, using data to support a predetermined conclusion lacks objectivity.

Atkinson: Yes . Another form of woolly thinking is when strict adherence to rules becomes an end in itself, preventing improvement or progress, or when fundamental value is overlooked. For example, the continued emphasis on seals on various documents in this day and age strikes me as lacking in rationality. Furthermore, while Japan's economic growth is often attributed to its postwar recovery, the truth is that since the Edo period, Japan possessed capabilities on par with advanced nations. The brilliance of the prewar era is also one of Japan's strengths, and it's a great pity that it receives little attention. Japan inherently possesses foundational capabilities, so once it gets moving, it can accelerate quickly. The non-performing loans I once reported on were cleared much faster than anticipated, and Konishi Art & Craft Co., despite facing a mountain of problems, resolved them in just two or three years – it was astonishing.

Now is the time to make tourism a driver of Japan's growth

Ikeda: You mentioned earlier that a large population is a strength, but Japan's population is now declining, and GDP is trending downward. Professor Atkinson suggests that developing tourism into a robust industry is a key strategy Japan should pursue going forward.

Atkinson: If current trends continue , Japan's GDP is projected to fall to eighth place globally within 20 years. To maintain its global presence and remain a nation the world admires, Japan must objectively assess reality and implement strategies. The tourism sector offers abundant opportunities simply by catching up. Amidst the global shift from industrial to service-based economies, a 2014 report indicated tourism accounted for 9% of global GDP and 29% of all service industry exports, with Europe and America particularly focusing their efforts.

Ikeda: Since we've fallen behind, there's a lot we can do.

Atkinson: Exactly . Besides, if people aren't visiting from around the world, how can Japan be admired? Japan is exploring tourism, but it's hard to say any of it has truly become a business. For example, admission to Buckingham Palace in the UK is about £20, nearly ¥4,000, but you get exhibits and explanations that justify that price. In contrast, admission to Japanese castles is minimal, yet inside, there's often no explanation at all. Foreign tourists come to enjoy themselves, so we should provide more enjoyable experiences that are worth paying for. Tourism isn't a service; it's a business. Global international tourist arrivals grew from 27 million in 1950 to over 1 billion in 2013, and are projected to reach 1.8 billion by 2030. I sincerely hope we can further boost tourism as an industry and seize this huge opportunity.