The era is shifting from long tail to blockbuster. The law of mega hits taught at Harvard.

An era where even die-hard fans only see one movie a week

In 1999, Alan Horn, newly appointed president of Warner Bros. Studios, adopted a bold strategy. He selected only 4-5 flagship films from the studio's annual output of about 25 movies. He then concentrated the budget intensively on the production and marketing of those films.

Remarkably, in 2010, just three of the 22 films produced claimed one-third of the total budget!

This move was driven by market realities: even die-hard movie fans were only seeing about one film per week. With the market struggling to grow, the studio focused on creating films that would be chosen by these dedicated fans.

What was the result? Warner Bros. achieved an unprecedented winning streak, becoming the first film studio in history to surpass $1 billion in U.S. box office revenue for 11 consecutive years.

The top three titles, with their hefty production budgets, accounted for over 50% of the box office revenue.

The bottom line is getting people to go to the theater. Films with big budgets are more likely to appeal to fans who are willing to make the trip. (P.2)
Mr. Horn told the author this in the text.

Indeed, Warner Bros.' 2010 performance saw its top three high-budget titles account for over 50% of its global box office revenue that year. You'll surely recognize many of the titles listed.

This trend has spread to industries like lingerie. Victoria's Secret captures public attention by casting an astonishing number of top models at exorbitant costs for its annual fashion show, transforming it into a media spectacle.

That said, it's not as if studios only care about the top 20% of titles. Ultra-low-budget films continue to be produced. Horn explains the benefits of these low-budget films:

From vampire movies to audition shows, they offer a chance to test new formats for products. (P.63)

While stabilizing profits with mega-hits, they also diligently pursue these experimental projects to nurture the seeds of the next blockbuster. The blockbuster strategy is not a high-stakes gamble based on single-point concentration.

Incidentally, the author of this book, Professor Anita Elberse, teaches a popular and unique course at Harvard called "Strategic Marketing in Creative Industries." The book is packed with conversations with CEO-level executives, which is typical of Harvard.

Equally noteworthy is Mr. Reito Hatoyama, who served as translator and commentator. Selected as one of "Harvard Business School's 31 Most Successful Alumni" (who knew such a ranking existed), he is Sanrio's Managing Director. As the driving force behind the global expansion of their characters, his insightful commentary columns throughout the book are truly compelling.

The Concentrated Investment Model Enabled by Big Data

Conventional wisdom holds that movies and music are quintessential examples of products where "you won't know if they'll hit until you release them." To mitigate risk, diversifying investments across various products was considered the smart move... that was the norm.
But this blockbuster strategy pours money relentlessly into products deemed "bound to hit!" High risk, high reward. Scary stuff.

What actually underpins this strategy is big data analysis and algorithms.
Take Netflix, which recently launched in Japan. By meticulously analyzing the viewing habits of its 44 million members—down to search terms, viewing times, and even "where users paused, fast-forwarded, or rewound"—it constantly attempts to predict hits.

The "Backlash" of the Digital Age That Fostered Diverse Values

What makes this book fascinating is how it pinpoints something like a "backlash" against the online society.
It's long been said that as the internet matures and e-commerce sites like Amazon and Rakuten, along with social media, become ubiquitous, we enter the era of the Long Tail. Everyone can belong to small communities, and the diversification of values becomes the norm. This is something we can certainly feel.

Yet, what this book describes is the exact opposite. As the internet evolved, many people ended up relying on safe, popular titles chosen by the masses. Simply put, it became too much trouble to use the internet for detailed information gathering or judging the merits of things.

"What everyone says is good is good for me too."
This book unravels the atmosphere of such an era with abundant data and case studies.

While the examples cited involve extremely high-budget investments, the blockbuster strategy, simply put, is about "creating reasons for products to be chosen by the overwhelming majority." This might be the perfect hit strategy for an era of product saturation and stagnant sales.