What if you used Airbnb surrounded by nothing but bad people?

In service development, we often hear statements like "Experience is crucial" or "This part of the experience is poor, so we should rethink the design." Experience refers to the totality of what a customer feels when using a service. Today, with little functional difference remaining among most products and services on the market, a service's value is determined not only by properly providing the functional elements users demand, but also by whether the sensations experienced within it feel pleasant, regardless of the environment.

This "regardless of the environment" aspect is crucial. Whether the service itself is at fault or not, it's vital to proactively anticipate and eliminate risks that could diminish the user experience before dissatisfaction arises. This aligns perfectly with the principle stated in the "Ten Commandments of the Demon," the last will of Hideo Yoshida, the fourth president of Dentsu: "Your mind must always be in full rotation, attentive in all directions, leaving no room for even the slightest gap. That is what a service is." This is precisely what is required even in cutting-edge service development today, as captured in the 'Ten Commandments of the Demon,' the legacy teachings of Hideo Yoshida, the fourth president of Dentsu Inc.

One technique for this is the "Design Scenario." This method involves creating a detailed, highly realistic story to verify what might happen when a new service is implemented under specific user profiles, relationships, and social environments.

Furthermore, within this "design scenario" methodology, there is a technique called the "negative scenario." This involves rigorously examining "under what circumstances could the situation worsen?" for an existing service. It is used, for example, when analyzing the risks of a service that is currently functioning well. Verification can be done through written text, or sometimes by creating a picture-story show or producing a video.

Let's consider how design scenarios are actually used, taking the example of sharing services (*), which have been gaining users and are currently evolving.

※Sharing services refer to platforms that effectively utilize underutilized resources such as vacant "space," spare "time," or idle "cars." While this business model of sharing has existed since the dawn of the internet, until recently it often failed to take root outside the highly specialized environment of Silicon Valley or struggled to design compelling benefits for suppliers, leading to a history of services emerging and then disappearing. However, the widespread adoption of smartphones in daily life, the infrastructure-level integration of Facebook for personal authentication, and the dramatic improvement in IT literacy among non-IT professionals have all interacted to dramatically enhance the user experience. This has led to a rapid proliferation of services that have suddenly become widespread in recent years. Globally, the proliferation of sharing services is occurring sequentially in markets where the boundaries of ownership are ambiguous or where resources remain idle for extended periods. This trend is forcing transformation upon businesses and markets that previously profited solely from selling goods.

What if you tried Airbnb in a country full of bad people?

Now, let's examine the risks inherent in sharing services and how to hedge against them using a "design scenario," taking Airbnb—a representative sharing business that matches vacant rooms worldwide with travelers and facilitates transactions—as our example.

On Airbnb, travelers staying at accommodations are called "guests," while those renting out their spaces are called "hosts." The basic service flow when using Airbnb as a guest is as follows:

① Register a profile ⇒ ② Select a place ⇒ ③ Complete payment ⇒ ④ Meet the host at the destination and receive the keys ⇒ ⑤ Stay at the place

Here, using the "negative scenario" introduced earlier, we will attempt to verify what happens if guests and hosts use Airbnb with malicious intent.

"What would a malicious guest do first?" Naturally, they'd create a fake profile for fraudulent or prank purposes. However, Airbnb's system filters out such profiles because selecting a place requires linking a Facebook or Google account or submitting a passport photo. Additionally, hosts can verify a guest's phone number and connected social media accounts before accepting a booking, allowing them to reject suspicious profiles upfront.

Furthermore, to prevent last-minute cancellations, payment must be processed before meeting the host at the destination to receive keys. Airbnb holds the accommodation fee temporarily. This system makes it extremely difficult for guests to abuse Airbnb.

Next, let's consider a scenario where a bad person uses Airbnb as a host. The basic service flow for a host is as follows:

① List the accommodation ⇒ ② Accept reservations from guests ⇒ ③ Reservation is confirmed ⇒ ④ Hand over keys and explain the accommodation ⇒ ⑤ Receive payment from Airbnb

First, regarding payment collection: Since transfers must go through Airbnb, it's impossible to take the money and not let the guest stay. Crucially, hosts constantly receive reviews from guests, and the worse the reviews, the lower they appear in search results.

If a host were unscrupulous, they might threaten guests over the phone, saying, "I won't provide good service unless you leave a positive review." However, reviews must be written by guests "after" their stay is complete, making it impossible to coerce a positive review beforehand. Guests only need to pay the pre-agreed accommodation fee. Even if a host later makes false claims like "damaged property was found" and sends an inflated bill, if the guest has no recollection of such damage, they can simply give the host a poor review, sending the host's listing plummeting to the bottom of search results. Conversely, if a review contains untrue statements, there is a system in place to report it to Airbnb.

In this way, Airbnb proactively incorporates systems to mitigate risks inherent in sharing services, effectively weeding out bad actors. Furthermore, should issues still arise, the "Host Guarantee" provides compensation up to ¥100 million, and refund policies for guests are in place. Airbnb pays compensation for damages, and perpetrators face severe measures like forced account termination.

Of course, it will take a little more time before many sharing services become safe to use. However, with services like Airbnb that have overcome significant challenges, it's clear they analyze factors that greatly impact the service experience, particularly in risk avoidance, and conduct thorough deliberations.

The most challenging aspect when discussing service design is how to address the fact that services are intangible. To overcome this, approaches like the design scenarios introduced here, which encourage participants to expand their imagination, prove effective.