The Surprisingly Neglected State of PDCA These Days—Hacking Effectiveness Verification—

Ⅰ. Action-Based Effectiveness Verification

Regardless of whether it's digital or not, marketing activities involve PDCA cycles—verifying results and applying them to subsequent strategies and tactics.

However, working with various clients, I find that few properly execute this PDCA cycle. This is largely due to the limitations of web-based, awareness-focused surveys. For example, in an effectiveness survey for a brand campaign, results might show high awareness of the TV commercial, strong brand favorability, and high purchase intent. Yet, actual sign-ups or purchases remain low. This is a case where "survey-reported awareness" and "actual behavior" diverge.

　However, in today's era of digital marketing, even these effectiveness verification surveys are increasingly based on "actual actions." We can now determine, based on real behavior: "Did people who saw the TV commercial actually visit the campaign site? What percentage did?" "Did people exposed to both TV commercials and digital ads have higher site visit or application rates than those who only saw the TV commercial?" Due to sample size limitations, it's currently possible for some brands but not others to determine whether people who visited the site after exposure to both TV commercials and digital ads actually purchased the brand. Regardless, action data—such as TV commercial exposure, digital ad exposure, and site visits—is now significantly more usable than before. Furthermore, such behavioral data surveys (especially digital ad exposure surveys) often allow for the collection of additional attitudinal items, such as "brand impression." This enables us to examine both attitudinal and behavioral data to clarify what worked well and what didn't. If purchase intent was high but few people actually took actions like applying, the gap itself presents the next opportunity. Further analysis can then delve deeper into this area.

II. Setting KPIs Through Backward Calculation

The implementation of effectiveness verification studies using actual behavioral data has also changed how KPIs (Key Performance Indicators) are set and how the next period's marketing investment amount is calculated. Previously, asking surveys were used to set awareness-based KPIs like TV commercial awareness, brand favorability, and purchase intent, and to evaluate their achievement levels. However, with effectiveness verification using actual behavioral data, we can now measure TV commercial awareness, digital ad exposure, website visits, and (if sufficient samples are available) actual purchase history. This allows us to set KPIs by working backward from business goals like website visits, applications, or purchases. We can then determine the necessary digital ad volume and efficiency metrics (Impressions, CTR, CVR, etc.), as well as TV ad volume (GRP, etc.). We now set KPIs by working backward from the ultimate goal KGI (Key Goal Indicator), such as sign-ups or purchases, and then calculate the optimal investment amount required to achieve those KPIs.

Ⅲ Optimizing Mass Media and Digital Advertising

This ability to set KPIs based on actual actions has also enabled precise allocation of investment between mass media and digital advertising based on those KPIs. It seems to have largely resolved the longstanding criticism of the advertising industry: "We know half the money spent on advertising is wasted. The question is which half." By preparing three years' worth of data on TV commercials, digital ads, and other marketing activities, we can use a statistical method called MMM (Marketing Mix Modeling) to calculate the optimal investment allocation for achieving sales targets. Thanks to advances in big data analysis tools and statistical methods, this is now considerably cheaper and faster than it was ten years ago, leading to more companies implementing it. Furthermore, optimizing plans within digital advertising is possible using attribution analysis, and recently, there's active discussion about whether optimizing plans that mix offline and online channels is feasible.

That said, one crucial point to note is that these optimization analyses are still far from being a panacea. What matters most is designing the emotional appeal and motivation before calculating optimizations. You must first design the function and role of the media as a means to prompt action, asking questions like, "Will people truly respond to this TV commercial and digital strategy?" Before optimizing between means, you should first consider what to communicate and what kind of experience to provide. In other words, designing the emotional appeal is crucial. No matter how efficient the means are for the target audience, if the content being communicated isn't beneficial or interesting to them, it's nothing but a nuisance. Pursuing efficiency by leveraging ad tech is also important. However, it goes without saying that we must first seriously consider questions like: "Can we even create a brand experience with traditional banner ads? Will people actually like the brand?" and "Will they go out of their way to make a purchase?"

Ⅳ KPI Shifts: From "Reach and Efficiency" to "Depth and Diffusion"

We can now work backward from the business goal of purchase to set digital ad metrics like Impressions (Imp), Click-Through Rate (CTR), Conversion Rate (CVR), and even Mass Media metrics like Gross Rating Points (GRP) needed to support them. But fundamentally, the purchase process itself—"TV commercial → website visit → purchase"—might no longer function. Therefore, KPIs related to depth and diffusion are becoming increasingly important. These include metrics like the Net Promoter Score (NPS), which quantifies questions like: "Are we creating experiences people want to talk about?"

Furthermore, these KPIs, effectiveness verification survey data, sales figures, and social media data are now easily accessible through a data overview system called a marketing dashboard. Both clients and advertising agencies can now grasp the situation in real time using the same database, enabling instant response to any issues. Here, it's crucial to maintain two perspectives: the small-scale PDCA aimed at improving the efficiency of daily digital initiatives, and the larger-scale PDCA focused on the mid-term view of brand development, customer structure, and fan cultivation. Focusing solely on the immediate efficiency of daily metrics, which are easily visualized numerically, risks losing sight of the brand's fundamental direction. Conversely, focusing only on mid-term brand evaluation trends doesn't directly translate to daily sales improvement, making it impossible to afford a leisurely approach. Therefore, maintaining a balanced perspective on both is essential.

V. The Relationship Between Data and Ideas

This time, we introduced the reality of the "Organize" phase within the brand growth hacking process of "Find," "Grow," and "Organize."

Changing the subject slightly, there's something I often ponder when using data in PDCA cycles: "Does data hinder ideas?" Some argue that basing next strategies and initiatives on survey data isn't helpful because "consumers answering surveys only respond within the bounds of common sense, so it's not very useful for thinking of new things." But is that really true? Ideas often break through constraints by forcing us to think creatively. Rather than planning and creating solely from scratch using only a planner or creator's intuition and experience, I believe people respond better when we build upon a solid understanding of consumers' current situations and behaviors, then push beyond their expectations. To conceive brands and services that are just half a step ahead—things that seem possible yet haven't existed—it's crucial to grasp consumers' common sense and imaginative boundaries through meticulous daily PDCA. Furthermore, it's vital not to leave implemented ideas unchecked. Seriously accept the results, whether good or bad, and adopt an attitude of working together with the client to consider the next improvements and services that are just half a step ahead and not yet in the world.

Over these three installments, we've introduced the three processes of brand growth hacking: "Discover," "Nurture," and "Refine." Next time, we'll discuss the ideal team structure for an advertising agency to realize this brand growth hacking with clients. Stay tuned.