What Will Life Be Like in 2030? Future-Oriented New Business Development Starting with the Future Forecasting Tool 'Dentsu Inc. Future Mandala 2024' (Part 1)

The 'Dentsu Future Mandala 2024' (hereinafter referred to as Future Mandala 2024), provided by six domestic Dentsu Group Inc. companies ( Dentsu Inc., Dentsu East Japan Inc., Dentsu Digital Inc., Dentsu Consulting Inc., DENTSU SOKEN INC., DentsuMacromill Insight, Inc. is a mid-term future forecasting tool that compiles trends likely to emerge by 2030. It supports future-oriented management strategy planning and the development of new businesses and services.Experts and specialists comprehensively categorized trends across four categories—"Population & Households," "Society & Economy," "Science & Technology," and "Cities & Nature"—establishing 72 trend themes.

Using this "Future Mandala 2024" as the core, a workshop was held to predict future consumer needs and market trends and to experience new business concept development aimed at 2030.The first part of this article reports on the 'New Business Concept Workshop Using Dentsu Future Mandala.' The second part features interviews with Takuya Kagata of Dentsu Consulting Inc. and Akemi Takahashi of Dentsu Digital Inc. both members of the 'Future Mandala 2024' editorial team who also facilitated the workshop.

72 Future Trend Themes Set for 2030

In March 2024, six domestic Dentsu Group companies began offering "Future Mandala 2024." The "Future Mandala" is a future forecasting tool created by approximately 30 experts from various fields and business concept practitioners, involving over 1,000 cumulative hours of research and editing.For the 2024 edition, 22 themes were updated from the 2023 version to reflect changing times. New trend themes were incorporated, such as "A Multi-Death Society: Changing Perspectives on Life and Death and Related Businesses" and "The New Economy Zone: Monetization of Time Resources." For each theme, data, topics, and hints/perspectives for the future were presented.

To mark the launch of "Future Mandala 2024," a workshop co-hosted by six domestic Dentsu Group companies was held on March 25.Approximately 30 participants, selected by lottery from various industries, attended. These included representatives from companies facing challenges in new business/service development—such as those seeking "new ideas that transcend existing products/businesses" or "effective approaches to business development"—and companies considering collaboration or partnerships with the Dentsu Group. They utilized the tool to experience part of the new business development program firsthand.

The "Exploration" Process for Discovering Hidden Challenges in the VUCA Era

In the first half of the workshop, Takuya Kagata of Dentsu Consulting Inc., who serves as Editor-in-Chief of the "Future Mandala," explained the significance of the tool as follows:

"As we enter this highly uncertain VUCA era, many companies are grappling with questions like 'Where should we head next?' and 'What kind of businesses should we create?' The key is not to immediately pinpoint industry challenges, but to first conduct an 'exploration' process: 'How will society fundamentally change in the future?' and 'What challenges will arise for future consumers?' The 'Future Mandala' is a tool that plays a vital role in this exploration process."

Mr. Kagata continued, emphasizing that "it's crucial to explore the future and formulate hypotheses without being confined to your own business domain." He shared a case study from a new business development project at a major food manufacturer, where they envisioned business 10 years ahead by sharing future predictions from a macro perspective, not limited to the related domains of each business unit.

"First, we used the 'Future Mandala' as a catalyst. Each project member brought ideas like 'The future society might change like this.' Based on that, we generated about 150 hypotheses such as 'If the future changes like this, maybe this could happen.' Dentsu Group then researched areas we wanted to explore further. We also summarized these hypotheses with illustrations to share visions of future lifestyles.Once we reached this stage, ideas exploded in the latter half of the project. We advanced discussions along the lines of 'If society changes like this, our company could do this,' and began developing business and service ideas."

Considering "Newly Built Condominiums in 2030" from the Consumer Perspective

In the latter part of the workshop, facilitated by Dentsu Digital Inc.'s Akemi Takahashi, participants split into six groups for group work. They discussed potential changes in consumers' lives in the future and developed ideas for business implementation.

The hypothetical client is a comprehensive real estate developer headquartered in Tokyo. The new business development theme is "Developing residential concepts for new condominiums scheduled for occupancy in the early 2030s."The development site is located along the Tsukuba Express line, within 30 minutes of central Tokyo. Participants discussed what added value should be incorporated if planning a high-end condominium here, envisioning what a well-being residence should look like in 2030, including residential units and common areas.

During group work, each team was given five trend themes excerpted from "Future Mandala 2024." They selected three elements or keywords that resonated with them. Participants chose words like "replacing humans with robots," "health as a driver of personal satisfaction," and "shifting from sustainability to regeneration," then discussed their reasons.

The next step involved considering, from a resident's perspective, how their behaviors and values might change based on the selected elements and keywords. For example, participants who chose "Robot Substitution" suggested: "If robots improve time efficiency, more people might want to spend their extra time more enrichingly," and "There could be growing demand to entrust health management to robots."

In the final step, based on the discussions so far, we proceeded to discuss ideas for ideal housing and the value it should provide.One group, inspired by the keywords "robot substitution" and "health as a driver of personal satisfaction," proposed: "If robot diagnostics manage health, residents could become healthier just by living here, creating a building with fewer sick people," "Having a hospital within the building that treats pre-disease conditions should promote health," and "This could provide the value of allowing families to spend longer, richer times together."Other unique ideas emerged, such as "a condominium that deliberately provides inconvenient experiences to enhance children's survival skills" and "a regeneration condominium that transforms common areas into forests to reduce CO2 emissions." Opinions were actively exchanged, and the ideas consolidated during the group work were presented by each team's facilitator.

Following the presentations, the workshop concluded with an explanation of the development process for translating ideas into concrete new ventures in actual business development.

Subsequent participant surveys revealed feedback such as: "Seeing the 'Future Mandala' clarified vague thoughts I had been mulling over. The workshop surprisingly sharpened my focus on future consumers, like bringing them into focus," and "It required a different way of thinking than usual business. I want to try applying this perspective to reexamine our company's challenges and see what emerges." Participants seemed to gain significant insights they could apply to their daily work.

Workshops that encourage thinking about business from the perspective of future consumers offer participants the opportunity to encounter ideas outside their own company's domain, providing significant stimulation. In the second part, we will delve deeper into the "Future Mandala," featuring an interview about the key themes for the 2024 edition and the objectives of this workshop.