What will life be like in 2030? Future-oriented new business development starting with the forecasting tool 'Dentsu Inc. Future Mandala 2024' (Part 2)

In March 2024, six domestic Dentsu Group Inc. companies ( Dentsu Inc., Dentsu East Japan Inc., Dentsu Digital Inc., Dentsu Consulting Inc., DENTSU SOKEN INC., and Dentsu Macromill Insight, Inc. ) began offering " Dentsu Future Mandala 2024" (hereafter, Future Mandala 2024).The "Future Mandala 2024" is a future forecasting tool that compiles potential trend themes likely to emerge by 2030, designed to support management strategy formulation and new business development. To coincide with its launch, workshops were conducted targeting companies facing challenges in creating new businesses.

This article features interviews with Takuya Kagata of Dentsu Consulting Inc. and Akemi Takahashi of Dentsu Digital Inc., who were involved in editing the Mandala and facilitating the workshop. They discuss the key trend themes to watch in the 2024 edition and the effectiveness of the workshop.

22 trend themes have been refreshed. Among them, the 3 most noteworthy themes are

Q. The "Future Mandala," developed in 2010, has now released its 2024 edition. Could you share recent developments?

Kagata: In this VUCA era of rapid change, companies cannot create future business by remaining confined within narrow industries. The "Future Mandala" was developed to broadly survey the future and predict trends within this context. Initially updated every few years, we began annual content updates after the pandemic as societal changes accelerated further.

Furthermore, we began editing and operating a Chinese version in fiscal year 2022 and an Indian version in fiscal year 2023. Since China and India experience even more rapid change than Japan, I believe this approach of considering all possible futures is highly effective.

Takahashi: In recent years, we've received requests not only from new business development personnel but also from marketing staff and system developers saying, "We want to use the 'Future Mandala' to consider the ideal state or condition through backcasting." In this VUCA era, immediate challenges and trends shift rapidly, so I feel the mindset of extending our gaze further ahead and viewing the present from the future is becoming widely established.

Q. For the 2024 edition, 22 themes were updated from the 2023 version. Among the newly added themes, could you highlight any particularly noteworthy ones?

Takahashi: There are three distinctive themes. First is "A Society of Multiple Deaths: Changing Views on Life and Death, and Related Businesses."

Kagata: Anticipating the advancing aging of society, the "Future Mandala" has previously featured the lifestyles of seniors in their 60s and beyond as trend themes. In the 2024 edition, we finally address "death" head-on. As the aging society matures and a multi-death society is predicted, companies are emerging that turn end-of-life planning—such as "how to end one's life well"—into business, and our future projections have also changed.

Takahashi: Next is the "Time Resource Monetization Economy." We also see this as a change that fundamentally shakes the foundations of how we live and our values. As the pursuit of TPA (Time-Based Assets) advances, the value of time will be prioritized over money. As a result, an economic sphere where individuals compete for each other's disposable time should form. On the other hand, services allowing people to spend time slowly, without being rushed, will likely increase. We predict marketing activities centered on competing for time resources will become more active.

Kagata: Finally, "Deteriorating National/Local Government Finances and Accelerated EBPM (Evidence-Based Policy Making)". Amid ongoing government fiscal constraints, we foresee the standardization of EBPM – a rational, logical policy evaluation/formulation process based on objective data. Policies lacking evidence are likely to be abolished.

The "Future Mandala" is a tool used by private companies to create new businesses, so a few years ago, this theme might not have been selected. However, in recent years, social fragmentation has deepened, making how to make decisions and build consensus across various layers a major issue. Furthermore, the trend of outsourcing areas traditionally handled by government, such as infrastructure maintenance, to private companies is accelerating. Therefore, we decided to include future predictions regarding national policy in this year's trend themes.

Challenging the 2035 Future Forecast

Q. At the workshop held in March, participants developed new business ideas around the theme "Developing Living Concepts for Newly Built Condominiums Scheduled for Occupancy in the Early 2030s." Could you share the rationale for selecting this theme and the insights you hoped participants would gain?

Takahashi: We wanted participants to consider all aspects of living and lifestyle. We chose condominiums as the theme because they encompass multiple dimensions: clothing, food, shelter, neighborhood relationships, life events, and assets. The workshop aimed to provide an experience where participants would draw hypotheses and challenges from within themselves, based on input from the "Future Mandala." We also hoped that through group discussions, participants would deepen their analysis collectively and refine the hypotheses and challenges.

Kagata: Previously, condominium development was solely the domain of real estate developers. Today, however, many industries—including automakers and appliance manufacturers—are expanding into businesses that touch all aspects of residents' lives. We felt this theme was ideal for inspiring participants to think ambitiously and generate diverse ideas.

Q. How do you hope participants will utilize this experience?

Takahashi: We strongly encourage them to implement similar initiatives within their own companies. In daily work, team members typically tackle the same challenges together. However, incorporating a future perspective through the "Future Mandala" might reveal something different. We hope they can utilize the essence of the thinking developed during the workshop.

Q. Finally, could you tell us about the future development of the "Future Mandala"? The 2024 edition focuses on 2030. How do you plan to evolve it going forward?

Kagata: I have two thoughts. Until now, to achieve higher resolution in future forecasting, we've focused on the relatively short-range future of 2030. However, recently, projects forecasting the future around 2040 and 2050 are increasing. Therefore, next year, we finally want to tackle forecasting the future around 2035.We want to keep predicting a future that feels tangible, even as we extend our reach a bit further, sparking hypotheses and discussions.

The second idea concerns our approach to B2B companies. While we've traditionally received more inquiries from B2C companies, we're now seeing heightened interest from technology-focused B2B firms.Many B2B companies develop products by predicting "where consumer behavior will ultimately lead," but they must also consider how their client companies envision the future. This adds another layer to the process, making it more of an applied project. We also want to expand activities to make the "Future Mandala" more widely known among these B2B companies.

In new business development using the "Future Mandala," ideas are expanded from the perspective of future consumers. Mr. Kagata explains that this process broadens insights beyond existing business domains and deepens understanding of the team members collaborating on the project. Why not utilize the "Future Mandala" as a kickoff tool to flexibly envision future business?