Analyzing the Reality of Hokuriku Tourism Through Location Data—Part 1 [NewsPicks × Dentsu Inc. News]

I'm Akimoto, a researcher at Dentsu Inc. Human Flow Lab. As the second installment of our "Location-Based Big Data" series, we'll examine changes in human flow patterns with a focus on "Hokuriku Tourism."

The Hokuriku region saw the opening of the Hokuriku Shinkansen in March 2015, and we often hear that "tourism has grown significantly" and "not only Japanese but also many foreign tourists are visiting." On the other hand, concerns have also been raised: "Is Kanazawa the only winner?" "Isn't Nagano being bypassed?" "Could a straw effect toward the Tokyo metropolitan area occur?"

The straw phenomenon refers to the situation where high-speed transportation networks connect metropolitan areas and regional areas, leading to consumption and talent being sucked away from the regions to the metropolitan areas.

 

Starting this time, we'll examine changes in human movement before and after the Hokuriku Shinkansen's opening over a four-part series, utilizing mobile phone location big data and open data. Since we're focusing on the period around the opening, some data is approximately one year old; please bear with us on that point.

As with previous installments, this series was created in collaboration with NewsPicks.

First, let's confirm how transportation convenience changed around the Hokuriku Shinkansen's opening.

Travel time between Tokyo and Kanazawa reduced by approximately 1 hour and 20 minutes

Toyama, Ishikawa, and Nagano Prefectures all show year-on-year increases in overnight visitors

Now let's examine the opening effect.

First, we'll examine the increase or decrease in lodging guest numbers—a significant indicator for the tourism industry—using open data. Comparing the same period year-on-year, we examined the total number of overnight stays in Toyama, Ishikawa, and Nagano Prefectures (Japan Tourism Agency "Overnight Travel Statistics Survey"). Since the Hokuriku Shinkansen opened in mid-March 2015, the period before January-March 2015 (Q1) is considered pre-opening, and April-June 2015 (Q2) onwards is post-opening.

The most striking growth is seen in Toyama Prefecture, where the number of overnight stays jumped significantly to 120% year-on-year in April-June 2015 (Q2), immediately after opening. Ishikawa Prefecture similarly showed growth close to 120% right after opening. Nagano Prefecture, where concerns existed about the risk of travelers bypassing it, also turned positive year-on-year, resulting in increased overnight stays for all three prefectures.

On the other hand, the growth rate began to decline from October to December 2015 (Q4), suggesting the boom was starting to settle down.

Examining Ishikawa Prefecture's occupancy rate for July-September 2015 (Q3) by accommodation facility size and type reveals higher occupancy rates for medium-sized and larger facilities. Business hotels and city hotels recorded an occupancy rate of 86%, suggesting they were nearly fully booked throughout this period.

Setting conditions for aggregating location-based big data

"What kind of people started moving due to the Hokuriku Shinkansen opening?" To understand the attributes of these people, we utilize Mobile Spatial Statistics data with the cooperation of Docomo Insight Marketing.

Mobile Spatial Statistics is statistical population information estimated 24 hours a day, 365 days a year, by gender, age group, and residence, using NTT DOCOMO's mobile phone network infrastructure. It is Japan's largest location-based big data, with a sample size of approximately 70 million contracts nationwide. This data allows for hourly population tracking (people per hour) and analysis considering dwell time (passers-by and those who stayed are not counted identically).

 

Since the period immediately after opening is most effective for gauging impact, we selected the 2015 Golden Week period—the first major holiday after opening—specifically using the average values from May 4th and 5th, 2015. The timeframe was set to the 4 a.m. hour, corresponding to the overnight stay period, and visitors to Ishikawa, Toyama, and Nagano Prefectures were aggregated by prefecture.

Now, let's examine which prefectures the visitors from these three prefectures came from (visitors staying during the 4 a.m. hour are considered visitors).

This time, Ishikawa Prefecture, which benefited most from the reduced travel time from the Tokyo metropolitan area, attracted visitors in a well-balanced manner from Tokyo, Aichi, and Osaka.

Visitors to Toyama Prefecture: Significant increase in those in their 30s and 40s; slight decrease from Osaka Prefecture

Next, let's look at Toyama Prefecture. Visitors from Tokyo and Aichi Prefecture increased, but those from Osaka Prefecture saw a slight decrease. This appears to be influenced by the Thunderbird train's final stop now being Kanazawa Station.

Regarding the age composition of visitors from the Tokyo metropolitan area, those in their 30s and 40s have increased significantly. Compared to Ishikawa Prefecture, the slight increases in those in their 20s and 60s are more modest.

No need to worry about Nagano Prefecture being bypassed

Minimal impact from the straw effect

Next, to examine changes in the level of interaction between Toyama Prefecture and Nagano Prefecture, and between Ishikawa Prefecture and Nagano Prefecture, we checked the outflow and inflow situations in the same manner as before. We found that outflow from both Toyama and Ishikawa Prefectures to Nagano Prefecture had increased, while inflow from Nagano Prefecture to both prefectures had decreased.

This resulted in a somewhat uneven exchange, failing to show a mutual increase in interaction levels.

Summary: Ishikawa and Toyama Prefectures saw a significant increase in visitors from Tokyo

Next time, based on this data, we'll hear from tourism industry professionals residing in Toyama.