Kevin Kelly's "12 Laws That Will Shape the Future" (Part 2)

The Japanese translation of Kevin Kelly's new book, " What Comes After the Internet: 12 Laws That Will Shape the Future," was released in Japan in late July. Kelly, founding editor-in-chief of WIRED magazine and a leading thinker in the technology world, explained three major trends among the significant changes expected 30 years from now during a commemorative lecture for the book's publication at Dentsu Inc. Design Talk. This installment presents the second part of that discussion.

 

The Key to Interaction Lies in VR

The second trend for predicting the future 30 years from now is "INTERACTING."
The future will expect interaction with all kinds of things. And the more interactive something is, the more powerful it will be. Things that cannot interact will be treated as if they were broken.

I helped design the future computing depicted in the movie Minority Report, directed by Steven Spielberg. In the film, the protagonist interacts with various devices not just with his fingers, but using his entire body, as if dancing.

As this film illustrates, the crucial technology for interaction is "Virtual Reality" (VR). VR was originally developed by Jaron Lanier in the early 1980s, but its high development costs prevented widespread adoption for a long time. Then came the smartphone. Technologies like accelerometers, screens, and video processors built into smartphones can be used for VR.

VR can be divided into several types. "Immersive VR" allows you to feel as if you are in another place by wearing goggles. For example, if you put on goggles in a room, you initially remain in the same room within the VR world. However, it can suddenly create an effect where the floor disappears, and you find yourself standing on a cliff. Even though part of your brain knows you're still in the room and you won't actually fall off the cliff, fear can cause your body to start trembling.

With "Mixed Reality" (MR), wearing goggles allows you to see virtual objects overlaid onto the real world. This blending of two worlds creates the effect of making virtual objects feel almost real.

I heard Pokémon GO launched in Japan too. Those already enjoying it have likely experienced the power of MR. Even without goggles, just using a mobile phone, it successfully bridges the physical and digital worlds. By the way, I started a week before everyone else, but I'm still only Level 5 (laughs).

 

What will humans gain from VR?

What we'll gain from VR in the future is something we could call a new internet. The internet up until now has been the "internet of knowledge." We read news, look things up on Wikipedia, and the internet contains information like documents, images, and videos.
In contrast, VR experiences are deeper. They aren't necessarily things you think about; they're more like an "Internet of Experiences" you can feel.

In the future, "experience" could become a new form of currency. We'll be able to buy someone's experience or download and share experiences. The transactions won't just be about thrilling experiences; for example, it's foreseeable that someone could virtually accompany you while you're sick in bed. Essentially, an "experience economy" will emerge on the internet.

Over 50% of the information we gain from VR comes from senses other than sight. For example, wearing gloves allows us to obtain information through touch. Superior VR devices will likely extend beyond goggles to include wearables like gloves. This area is currently underdeveloped but will become crucial for delivering a complete experience.

Furthermore, the most crucial and indispensable experience in the virtual world isn't seeing objects, but "encountering people." I've actually met someone in VR myself, and it was a truly thrilling experience.
Even in VR, the person in front of you feels incredibly real and present. You can see their hair and eyelashes moving, and the level of detail is so high you can examine every fiber of their clothing. This is entirely different from the experience of seeing someone face-to-face via Skype or FaceTime. Why is it different? Because it feels as if that person is truly there.

Using this new technology for communication, whether for work or personal life, should be a fantastic experience. And VR will become the most social of all social media platforms.

 

We are being "TRACKED"

The third trend is "TRACKING."
This means capturing people's actions as data. Even now, our lives are monitored, tracked, and digitized far more than we realize.
In the future, this will advance further, and essentially most of our lives will be tracked. And the VR world can be said to be the most easily trackable environment. This is because, to create an avatar as your alter ego in VR, you need to have everything tracked from the real world—your facial expressions, the movements of your hands and fingers, and so on.

Even today, we track ourselves—primarily for medical reasons related to health. Various fitness devices like Fitbit already exist, and technology now allows us to record heart rate, brain waves, and skin responses.

In the future, constant tracking throughout one's entire life might become desirable. Instead of visiting the hospital once a year for a health checkup, as we do now, we would measure ourselves daily. This would not only be effective for prevention but also enable treatment based on that data when illness strikes. Prototypes in the medical field are already being developed, so this realization shouldn't be too far off.

In the future, it won't just be us tracking ourselves; governments and corporations will track us too. Furthermore, through features like Facebook tagging, we might even be able to track our friends. It's a world of mutual tracking.

The frightening aspect of this situation is the potential for a scenario where "they know about me, but I don't know about them." You wouldn't know what information is being tracked about you, or even if it's accurate. Even if it were inaccurate, you couldn't correct it, nor could you hold them accountable when that information is used.
In other words, it creates a situation of information asymmetry. This is extremely uncomfortable.

So, what rules are needed for tracking?
What I propose is "Covigilance" (mutual surveillance). That is, making information symmetric. If someone tracks you, you should be able to track them back. By mutually monitoring each other, we prevent misuse.
Related to this, there's another crucial point. Why do we track each other? Because we seek personalized treatment.

If we want individually tailored services from governments or companies, we must disclose our information. Friends treat us specially because we open up to them, allowing them to know us. Similarly, if we demand the same from governments and companies, we have no choice but to share our information.

On the other hand, when privacy is needed, that choice must be available. However, prioritizing privacy also means you won't receive personalized services.

 

There's never been a better time to start something

Finally, I'd like to discuss the future in general.
When predicting the future, some things might seem so unbelievable that you think, "There's no way that could happen."

Imagine using a time machine to go back 30 years and explain the future to people then. Even if you told them they'd be able to access maps of every city worldwide, check stock prices in real time, and look up all kinds of information on Wikipedia, they probably wouldn't believe you. And if you added that this information would be provided for free, no one would believe you.

What I've learned from over 30 years of involvement with the internet is this: "You should believe even what seems impossible."

We knew 30 years ago that computers would become smaller. But if you predicted they would actually shrink to the point of being embedded in everything—shoes, chairs, even doorknobs—everyone would have called you crazy. "Why would you need a computer in a doorknob? It makes no sense!"

But go to a hotel today. You'll find countless computer-equipped doors securing room access. This means we must maintain flexibility and believe in what seems impossible now.

So, what I want to emphasize is that "there's never been a better time to create something new." History proves this. Tools for creating all kinds of things have become cheaper and more accessible.

The world of AI is still in its infancy, so simply adding AI to something is enough. There are still few experts in this field, meaning anyone here could become an AI or VR expert.
Looking back from 2036, you'll likely think how fortunate it was to be alive in 2016. There are countless opportunities, and so many things that could easily be realized simply don't exist yet.

The "dominant product" of the future hasn't even been invented yet. Someone in this room will have to invent it. The important thing is that none of you are behind. It's never too late to start something.

Thank you for your attention.

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You can also read the interview here on AdTie!

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Additionally, a special report on this event is available on cotas.
Planning & Production: Dentsu Inc. Event & Space Design Bureau, Aki Kanahara