What is the world's new common sense, "Singularity"? (Part 2)

Singularity refers to the "technological singularity." While the sensational focus is on artificial intelligence surpassing humans, this is actually just one element. Its essence lies in "exponential thinking"—the mindset that sparks disruptive innovations transforming the world. As this concept gained traction, particularly in Silicon Valley, massive investment combined with brilliant minds became the driving force for global-scale transformation. At the call of Mr. Futoshi Nitta of Dentsu Live Inc., who caught this trend early, top-tier "Singularity theorists" from across Japan have gathered. They will thoroughly discuss strategies for Japanese companies to soar globally.

(From left) Kazunori Saito, Co-Representative, Exponential Japan; Jovan Reboredo, Representative, Exponential Japan; Tomohiro Inoue, Associate Professor, Komazawa University; Takuya Matsuda, Professor Emeritus, Kobe University; Fumi Hito, Dentsu Live Inc.

Will the desire for reality fade as VR evolves?

Hitohashi: Our job in advertising is "creating human desire." For example, just as the "otaku market" emerged over a decade ago, if a singularity occurs, the very nature of human desire could change at an instinctual level.

Inoue: The virtual reality market, in particular, will likely grow exponentially. However, even if robots enable mass production beyond current levels, it's unclear whether people will consume those products. A universal basic income might change that, though.

On the other hand, companies must strive to uncover latent demand. That is precisely Dentsu Inc.'s role—the mindset of "if there's no demand, just create it."

However, if virtual reality can cheaply satisfy desires, it could potentially destroy all other industries. For example, if virtual spaces can replicate the exact same experience as movie theaters or theme parks, there would be no need to physically go there.

Virtual reality carries this kind of terrifying potential. Whether it's acceptable for humans to retreat into the virtual reality world for their entire lives—this might become humanity's final "real" debate.

Nitta: On the other hand, a craving for the real is also emerging, right? For instance, with the advent of digital space, music became accessible without paying. Yet simultaneously, the desire to physically experience artists in real live spaces has intensified.

Inoue: That's because we're in a transitional period. Eventually, virtual and real will evolve to a level where they become indistinguishable. I believe that represents the ultimate form of virtual reality.

Matsuda: Exactly. My personal outlook is that by 2045, humans will likely become immortal. But that means "immortal" only if nothing happens to them—they could still die if hit by a car while walking outside. So I think we'll enter an era of "100 million total shut-ins" to avoid danger.

In the near future, attaching AI devices to your head or implanting them in your brain will allow simulation of vision, hearing, and even touch. Since happiness is an electrical signal felt by neurons, stimulating the brain will induce feelings of happiness.

The jobs in such a world will involve creating things within virtual spaces. For example, "virtual space designers" might emerge.

Can Japan Lead the World in the Singularity?

Nippo: How does Singularity University envision the future?

Giovannini: The singularity often carries a frightening image because artificial intelligence and robots will take away human jobs. However, there is also the aspect of countries and governments utilizing it effectively.

For instance, we might see the emergence of "AI Centers" dedicated to disease prevention. I want to convey that it's not all frightening.

Saito: Singularity University in Silicon Valley argues that social transformation will occur not just through artificial intelligence, but through the synergistic effects of about 20 technologies collectively called Exponential Technologies.

What's disappointing is that we rarely hear Japanese companies' names in industries like virtual reality, drones, and 3D printing, which are known to grow vertically. What's needed to break this situation?

Inoue: When surveying the level of intellectual curiosity among adults in major world nations, Japan ranked near the bottom alongside South Korea. While our reading comprehension and numeracy skills are world-class, our IT skills are quite low. In an era where industrial revolutions occur roughly every 20 to 30 years, having low levels of intellectual curiosity among adults is a significant disadvantage.

Particularly troubling is the near-total lack of scientific and technological curiosity among humanities majors. This is truly problematic. Business cannot thrive if only science and engineering majors use technology. We need humanities majors to develop an interest in science and technology too.

Furthermore, another point: perhaps due to the lost two decades of deflation, the Japanese people have almost no venture spirit. I believe these factors collectively create an environment where new businesses struggle to emerge.

Matsuda: The traditional life model was 20 years of study followed by 40 years of work. But with innovation happening at an incredible speed today, what you learn in university will be completely obsolete in 10 or 20 years. So, what should we do?

Harari says, "Study after study. It's lifelong learning." In other words, we must constantly change our mindset.

I'm currently 74 years old, but I started researching artificial intelligence and machine learning at age 70. My former specialty was astrophysics, but I've completely abandoned that to pursue new research.

Students often ask me, "Professor, you've achieved quite a bit in astrophysics. Why are you tackling something else now?"

The reason is simple: "New things are interesting." So I turn it around and ask them, "Why don't you challenge yourself with new things?" I tell them, "With that mindset, Japan will perish."

Giovanni: That's fantastic! As an outsider observing Japan, I truly believe Japanese innovation is advancing remarkably.

But what's truly regrettable is that it's confined to Japan and not global. If Japan ventured further out, it could develop even more incredible businesses.

Nitō: Creating that kind of stimulating environment was the impetus for this panel discussion. It's terrifying to think that human capabilities will polarize—some people will grow exponentially, while others won't.

The possibility of intelligence becoming polarized

Matsuda: Mr. Inoue argues that basic income is necessary because economic polarization will occur, but Mr. Harari says, "In the future, 'intelligence' will become polarized."

In other words, the wealthy could connect artificial intelligence to their brains and become super-intelligent. If we set the average human IQ at 100, they could reach 1000. What happens then?

For example, consider someone like Bill Gates, who is extremely wealthy, and an ordinary person. Currently, even though Gates may have trillions of yen in assets, he doesn't live a million times longer than an ordinary person. He isn't a million times healthier or a million times happier.

But in the future, that will change. The wealthy will live a million times longer and become a million times smarter. This won't just create an economic gap; it will create an intelligence gap. Such a situation is unbearable.

So here's my proposal. The government should implant basic intelligence into the brains of citizens who want it, like a vaccination, when their children are born.

Giovanni: That's interesting. I think basic intelligence could be a fantastic business opportunity.

Saito: Professor Matsuda is convinced the Singularity is coming, but surprisingly, many AI researchers argue "the Singularity won't happen."

Matsuda: As recently discussed, a prominent Japanese researcher stated that "general artificial intelligence should be banned." In my opinion, that professor is not sufficiently informed.

As I mentioned earlier, AI can be categorized as "specialized" or "general-purpose," and further divided into conscious and non-conscious AI. The "AI that dominates humans" people fear is strong, conscious "general-purpose AI." I believe even weak, non-conscious general-purpose AI can trigger the Singularity.

Moreover, even if Japan were to ban "general-purpose AI," other countries, starting with the US and China, would continue developing it.

Saito: The arrival of the Singularity isn't the core issue. It's undeniable that science and technology are evolving at an incredible pace. So, even ideas that seem impossible at first glance might lead to fascinating developments if we keep challenging them.

Giovanni: Using singularity technology could solve problems that seem difficult to resolve today. I wish people would focus more on that aspect.

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You can also read the interview here on AdTie!
Planning & Production: Dentsu Live Inc. Design & Technical Unit Campaign Planning Room Digital & Account Planning Department Aki Kanahara