Announcement of "Global Advertising Expenditure Growth Forecast" (Revised June 2019)

The text of the Dentsu Inc. news release distributed on June 13 is as follows.

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June 13, 2019

◆Global advertising expenditure growth rate for 2019 projected at 3.6%, with advertising expenditure reaching $609.9 billion
・While overall steady growth is expected to continue, the impact of uncertain economic conditions on consumer activity and slowing growth in China, Russia, and other regions led to a downward revision of the previous forecast (January 2019) from 3.8% to 3.6% in this forecast (June 2019).

◆2020 growth forecast at 4.1%, marking 11 consecutive years of growth since 2010
・Stable growth is expected to continue, exceeding the 2019 forecast and recovering to the 2018 growth rate (actual) of 4.3%.

◆By medium, digital continues double-digit growth, driving overall advertising market expansion
・Growth in 2019 is projected at 11.5%. Mobile advertising growth is 21.4%, with mobile's share of total advertising expenditure approaching one-third by 2020.
・Digital advertising's share is expected to exceed 40% in 2019 and approach 45% in 2020. Dentsu Aegis Network (Headquarters: London, UK), the international headquarters of Dentsu Inc., has compiled its "Global Advertising Expenditure Growth Forecast" (※1) based on data collected from 59 countries and regions worldwide. This forecast is revised and updated twice annually. This update confirms the 2018 actual figures and revises the forecasts for 2019 and 2020.

As a result, the global advertising expenditure growth rate for 2019 is projected to be 3.6% (previous forecast in January 2019: 3.8%). Against the backdrop of global economic growth, 2020 is also projected to see stable growth driven by digital advertising, with a growth rate of 4.1% (previous forecast: 4.3%) (see Figure 1).

■Digital Advertising Driving the Global Advertising Market

Global digital advertising expenditure is projected to maintain double-digit growth: 14.9% in 2018 (actual), 11.5% in 2019 (previous forecast: 12.0%), and 11.0% in 2020 (previous forecast: 10.8%) (see Chart 2). The primary drivers are growth in online video advertising and social media advertising. Among devices, mobile advertising is growing significantly at 21.4%, contributing to the digital advertising market's expansion.

The share of digital advertising expenditure in total global advertising expenditure reached 39.0% in 2018 (actual), surpassing television advertising expenditure (34.9%) for the first time. This share is projected to exceed 40% in 2019, reaching 41.8%, and further grow to 44.5% in 2020 (see Figure 3).

Furthermore, among the 59 countries and regions covered, digital is expected to become the top medium in terms of advertising expenditure share in 26 countries and regions in 2019 (21 countries and regions in 2018).

■2019 Forecast Overview

Global advertising expenditure is forecast to grow by 3.6% (previous forecast: 3.8%), reaching $609.9 billion. Despite the impact of uncertain economic conditions on consumer activity and slowing growth in China, Russia, and others, countries like India, Brazil, the UK, and Canada continue to perform well with high growth rates, suggesting overall stable growth will persist.

By medium, digital continues to drive advertising market growth worldwide. While newspapers face a -7.7% growth rate, magazines -7.4%, and television -0.1%, outdoor/transport advertising is projected to grow 4.3% and radio 1.7%. This trend is expected to continue into 2020, though television is forecast to recover to 0.6% growth.

■Japan Market Conditions

The 2018 advertising expenditure growth rate (actual) significantly increased from the previous forecast of 0.2% to 2.2% (※3). The main factors were the faster-than-expected growth of digital performance advertising and the inclusion of digital advertising provided by the four major mass media companies.

For 2019, based on the 2018 actual figures, the forecast was revised upward from the previous projection of 0.6% to a robust 1.2% growth. Digital advertising is expected to continue double-digit growth (14.5%), primarily driven by programmatic advertising. Mobile (21.2%), online video (29.2%), and digital advertising provided by the four major mass media companies are expected to be the main growth drivers.

For 2020, growth is projected to exceed 2019 at 1.8%, driven by events such as the Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games.

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*1: Dentsu Aegis Network (DAN) independently analyzes and estimates advertising expenditure growth rates for 59 countries and regions based on information gathered through its global network, publishing results twice yearly. Covered media include television, newspapers, magazines, radio, cinema (cinema advertising), outdoor/transport, and digital.
 

※2: For the Japanese advertising market only, advertising expenditures for media not listed in ※1 above (insert ads, direct mail, free papers/magazines, POP, etc.) are included. Therefore, in the media share forecasts, the figures excluding these items are treated as "total global advertising expenditures," and the share for each media type is then calculated.
 

※3: Dentsu Inc. announced in its February 28, 2019 news release "2018 Japan Advertising Expenditures" that Japan's total advertising expenditure for 2018 was 102.2% compared to the previous year (actual results).

 

※For details, please refer to the Dentsu Inc. News Release [PDF].

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Dentsu Inc. News Release
http://www.dentsu.co.jp/news/release/2019/0613-009834.html