How Will Japan Change in the New Normal? The Future Shaped by Consumer Research ~ "Marketing Solutions in the COVID Era" Report (Part 1) ~

Referring to findings from the "Deep Insights Survey on Consumers During the Pandemic," he noted that "less than 10% of people feel 'bright signs are beginning to appear in society,'" stating that "reinvigorating" Japanese society is still essential.

He then presented data showing that the surge in telework and remote work has made people aware of its convenience, and that the pandemic has sparked discomfort with various old habits, such as crowded trains. He emphasized the need to "rethink" how society functions.

He further noted that while the term "corona divorce" emerged early in the work-from-home period, data now shows that after prolonged close family living, people have grown accustomed to caring for each other. He interpreted this, along with data indicating a rising preference for prioritizing health over work, as signaling a time to "re-examine" work-life balance, including family dynamics.

Finally, he pointed out that commercials that went viral during the pandemic included "Otsuka Pharmaceutical's POCARI SWEAT Neo Chorus," "Zespri Kiwi," and "Suntory's BOSS." He stated, "For consumers weary of self-restraint, this is a time when warm messages resonate. We want to implement the 'Three Adjustments' together with our clients."
 

"Future Forecasting and Marketing Solutions" (1) Future Predictions and the Outlook for the Post-COVID Era (Shuichi Shibukawa, Dentsu Inc.)

At the "Future Prediction Support Lab," where Mr. Shibukawa contemplates the future for client companies, inquiries from clients asking "What will happen after COVID-19?" are constant. The Future Prediction Support Lab is a vision-making group formed by Dentsu Inc. employees with diverse experience in creative, media, technology, and other fields, originating from Dentsu Inc.'s Integrated Solutions (Marketing) division. It envisions future society from Dentsu Inc.'s unique consumer perspective.

The lab has created a Future Prediction Calendar for the new normal and beyond, factoring in government decisions like vaccine development support and the early rollout of 5G. Considering when and what to start based on this calendar, Shibukawa states, "The new normal has already begun." The Future Prediction Support Lab believes that how much preparation companies can make from the latter half of this year through next year will impact their competitiveness as we head toward 2022, the first year of the new normal.

So, how should we grasp societal changes to get a good start toward the new normal? Mr. Shibukawa explains the major societal shifts currently occurring, categorizing them into four broad areas.

The first change is the emergence of a society that minimizes contact, driving significant progress in DX (Digital Transformation). Citing government policy meetings that advocate "face-to-face or digital" and the accelerated digitization of administrative tasks—such as promoting My Number adoption and replacing paper and stamps—across both public and private sectors, he explains that widespread DX and automation will result in a society accumulating diverse data.

The second change highlighted is that "contact," "crowded spaces," and "travel" will become extremely precious opportunities. It is predicted that consumer demand to "enjoy these things to the fullest" will surge, leading to a renewed appreciation for the value of travel, events, and sports. He also explained that technology development for safe "contact," such as contact-tracing apps, will advance. He stated that if the 2021 Tokyo 2020 Games are utilized as a platform to implement and prototype these technologies, positive impacts on society and the world can be expected.

The third change is the diversification of society. The efficiency-focused mindset, previously taken for granted, is highly likely to be reevaluated across society. Furthermore, trends like multi-location living, changing preferences for residential areas, and progress in work-style reform are also aspects of this diversification. He stated that we are heading into an era demanding flexible corporate management while navigating the COVID-19 pandemic, which is expected to be a long battle spanning several years.

The fourth change mentioned concerns the transformation of the global economy and international relations. With human mobility drastically reduced, inbound tourism—a key driver of Japan's economic growth in recent years—has been significantly impacted. He suggested that while leveraging the aforementioned technologies, this presents an opportunity to revitalize inbound tourism, rebuild the Japan brand, and showcase the quality of Japanese products to the world.

Given these societal shifts, how will trends in the new normal society change? He listed 11 previously forecasted consumer trends, using arrows to indicate their expected future momentum. For example, while the pre-pandemic trend of "shifting from ownership to usage" is predicted to face headwinds due to fears of contact transmission, "transparency, authenticity, and a preference for genuine products" is expected to gain tailwinds, driven by needs like purchasing trustworthy products.

In making these trend forecasts, Shibukawa emphasized that DX, particularly around 5G/IoT, is advancing roughly five years earlier than anticipated. Consequently, the "society where everything is connected," previously thought to arrive after 2025, will come sooner than expected. He posed the question: If everything shifts to electronic tickets, how will entertainment and sports change? He suggested that thinking through such ideas with DX as a given provides hints for how businesses should adapt.

On the other hand, Mr. Shibukawa noted that Japan's core societal challenges facing 2020—such as the shrinking working-age population and depopulation—will persist post-COVID. He stated that the Future Prediction Support Lab aims to look toward 2030 and beyond, collaborating with clients to determine necessary actions.

"Future Forecasting and Marketing Solutions" (2) Value Creation in the New Normal Era: Interpreting Consumer Behavior and Mindset Shifts (Dentsu Inc., Ms. Waka Sugita)

Ms. Sugita noted that the pandemic, denoted by the character for "disaster," is something preventable through human effort. In the case of unavoidable natural disasters like earthquakes, there are victims and supporters working together toward recovery. However, the pandemic affects "every single one of us." She explained that to prevent it collectively, we must change laws and systems, which in turn will reshape our behaviors and values.

Therefore, what lies ahead is not recovery, but "reconstruction." As consumers rebuild their lives, companies are also compelled to rebuild the value they provide and their stance. To understand the nature of this consumer reconstruction, a survey was conducted using two axes: "What changes have occurred?" and "What do they want to do after the pandemic ends?" The findings report on a survey conducted over three days starting June 1st, targeting 2,000 men and women nationwide aged 20 to 70.

The results of 90 survey items regarding consumer attitudes and behaviors across life domains were analyzed using a two-axis, four-quadrant framework: "actual increases/decreases triggered by COVID-19" and "intended increases/decreases post-pandemic." Driven by the desire to identify emerging opportunities, this four-quadrant analysis was named the "Opportunity Portfolio."