―Me and the Professor― Scientifically Analyzing Creativity (Part 2)

Continuing from last time, we present a dialogue between Professor Shugo Hotta of Meiji University's Faculty of Law, specializing in the scientific analysis of communication, and Aaron Zu, Creative Planner at Dentsu Inc.

We explored the science of " idea creation," incorporating insights from Aaron's new book, Think in Diagrams!

In this information-rich era, hone your essential skills

Hotta: When generating ideas, sometimes overthinking leads to failure, right? It's well-known that in human decision-making too, the more information you have, the more likely you are to think in strange directions or make wrong judgments.

Aaron: Exactly. In product development, offering too many options confuses users. Presenting dozens of flavors or scents inevitably leads to indecision. This prevents instant purchasing decisions, often resulting in no sale.

Hotta: Exactly. Information overload leads to saturation, making people feel mentally full. That's why they can't choose. For example, when a restaurant has an overwhelming menu, customers get confused and just think, "I'll just take the top item." It's the same state of mind.

Also, this book doesn't just cover idea generation; it delves into "the essential qualities members need." It highlights execution skills, networking skills, and the ability to grasp the essence. I found that last one, the ability to grasp the essence, particularly interesting. It's about the power to see what's truly important.

It says that to cultivate this "ability to grasp the essence," it's important to attend events and maintain an interest in various things, right?

Aaron: That's right. "Essence" is similar to general knowledge—it can be applied to anything.

What is the essence of this meeting?
What is this meeting about?
What is this problem?

I think grasping things at their core is really important. However, developing this core competency is difficult. I believe it can only be cultivated as part of a general education from a young age, but if there are other good methods, I'd love to hear them.

Hotta: Cultivating it from a young age is certainly important. But I'd like to share an example of how you can improve your "essence-grasping ability" just by being mindful in your daily life.

Aaron: Please do.

Hotta: Dijkstrahouse and colleagues at Radboud University conducted a unique study. (※1) They prepared four used cars, with only one being a bargain. First, they divided participants into two groups: one group was allowed to think carefully, while the other group was given puzzles to solve, limiting their thinking time, and then asked to choose the bargain car quickly.

When given four pieces of hint information, both groups selected the bargain car at roughly the same probability. However, when the information was increased to twelve pieces, the group allowed to think carefully only selected the bargain car 25% of the time. A 25% success rate is essentially the same as choosing at random, meaning their careful consideration had no effect whatsoever.

※1 Dijksterhuis, A., Bos, M. W., Van Der Leij, A., & Van Baaren, R. B. (2009). Predicting Soccer Matches After Unconscious and Conscious Thought as a Function of Expertise. Psychological Science, 20, 1381–1387.
 

Aaron: You'd think that with more information, the group that had time to think carefully would make better choices, but that's not the case, is it?

Hotta: Exactly. On the other hand, the team that didn't have time to think could still pick the bargain car 60% of the time, even after the information was increased to 12 items. They could identify and select only the information they needed from the large amount available. This clearly shows that gathering too much information isn't good for developing core competence.

This experiment made me think that constantly honing the ability to ask, "What information is truly important to me?" is what leads to "essential skills."

Modern people, thanks to the internet, live lives where they can access in a single day the amount of information an Edo-period farmer might gather over a lifetime.

When you think about it, modern people are constantly exposed to an absolutely staggering amount of information. Making the right decisions every day amidst that is incredibly difficult for human capabilities. That's precisely why I believe honing your ability to discern what truly matters is so crucial for making choices.

Regret for not doing something is worse than regret for doing it. First, build your drive to act.

Aaron: Personally, I feel like there are more people lacking initiative these days. I'm a bit concerned about that.

Hotta: That's true. For better or worse, I think people are becoming lazy or aiming for eco-friendliness. In our generation, many people aimed for flashiness.

No matter how hard they studied, many people today lack ambition and just say, "Average is best." Maybe we're entering an era where "no adventure, no action, no pushing yourself" is seen as cool.

Aaron: I'm really worried about this lack of action. Because people who don't act just become critics. And critics, even if they start a business, often fail completely.

Even if someone has broad knowledge, possesses the "essential skills" we discussed earlier, and can communicate well with others, without the drive to act, they ultimately achieve nothing.

In new ventures, all three—execution, networking, and core competence—are indispensable.

Hotta: They say the regret of not doing something lingers far longer than the regret of doing it. There's an interesting study on this too. Levitt from the University of Chicago conducted an experiment where people flipped a coin to decide whether to take action or not. (※2)

When people let a coin decide something they were agonizing over, most were satisfied with the outcome. These were major life decisions—like whether to divorce or quit a job—yet about 70% of people were satisfied with their actions when they followed the coin's decision.

Aaron mentioned that "people look for reasons not to do things," but there's also research showing that 95% of our worries never actually happen. (※3)

Preparing for "what if this happens" is important, but letting anxiety stop you from acting is the worst approach. Taking action is what matters. In this anxiety-driven world, I think we've become a generation where fear inevitably takes precedence over action.

※2 Levitt, S. D. (2016). Heads or Tails: The Impact of a Coin Toss on Major Life Decisions and Subsequent Happiness. NBER Working Paper, No. 22487.

※3 Borkovec, T. D., Hazlett-Stevens, H., and Diaz, M. L. (1999). The role of positive beliefs about worry in generalized anxiety disorder and its treatment. Clinical Psychology & Psychotherapy, 6(2), 126–138.
 

Aaron: You have to think positively about things. Negative thoughts are the biggest loss, after all.

 Your perspective changes the world

Hotta: Negative thinking is also harmful to your health. It relates to motivation too—positive emotions boost motivation more than negative ones. Keeping your mindset light, positive, and relaxed is key.

Aaron: A young part-timer at a high-end restaurant told me, "I figured out the difference between successful CEOs and failed ones." I was curious, so I asked. She said,

"Successful CEOs only talk about the future. Failed CEOs just brag about the past."

That really stuck with me.

In the book, I emphasize "be proactive in everything." For example, warehouse management might seem like a passive job, but if you think proactively, you can understand what sells and what doesn't—it's actually a cutting-edge frontline position.

The same applies to customer service. If you actively engage your mind, you can see the difference between successful and unsuccessful CEOs. When you proactively think about anything, any job, the landscape you see changes dramatically.

Hotta: It's about interpretation, isn't it? I think university is exactly that kind of place.

I was passive during my first and second years of college. I barely attended classes and hardly ever went to campus (laughs).

It wasn't until my third year that I finally decided to study seriously and started going to campus.

When I took classes in various subjects, even though the same things were right in front of me as before, my interpretation changed. I started thinking that maybe what was right in front of me could be useful for my future.

Paying millions of yen in tuition, if I'd just passively attended, I wouldn't have gained anything. But when I actively engaged, it became a fountain of knowledge. Once that happened, no matter how much time I had, it wasn't enough for studying at university.

It's the same in everyday life. Our surroundings are full of resources. Just by changing your perspective—how you interpret and view things—the world becomes full of treasures. Conversations with people are treasures, and even books start to look like treasures.

Aaron: That's exactly the kind of shocking event that changed Professor Hotta's perspective—a true "black swan," right?

Hotta: Everything depends on interpretation. "Proactive" is truly the key word. How you proactively interpret information can completely change your life. Even something like a drinking party—shift your perspective, and you'll find all sorts of discoveries. Just by changing how you engage, you can make anything interesting.

Aaron: Exactly. Even a drinking party you thought was boring—if you approach it thinking, "These seniors know all sorts of things about the company," and engage with them, you might learn things like networking skills. It's all about interpretation.

What's More Important Than Ideas

Hotta: One last question. The book states that "second-hand ideas rarely succeed," yet in business, "TTP (Totally Take the Pattern)" is often emphasized as crucial. What are your thoughts on that?

Aaron: I don't think true innovation succeeds through imitation.

Take Google, for example. They weren't copycats. They succeeded because they pursued their original idea relentlessly.

Companies that came after Google, operating with a similar business core, haven't achieved such massive success. To become the true champion, being a copycat is difficult.

Of course, if you want to succeed as a second mover, there might be a "TTP" (Totally Take the Plunge) approach where you copy thoroughly.

Hotta: That really clicked for me. Thank you. I only skimmed this book, but I found so many points worth checking out. I really hope ambitious students, people with big dreams, and young folks will read it too.

Thank you for today.

Aaron: Thank you very much.

If you enjoyed this article, you might also like:
・―My Peer― Hints for Idea Generation: Creating New Ventures from 0→1
・The N=1 Approach: How a Single "I Want This" Creates Global Hits
・A New Approach to Customer Experience: The Science of Uncovering Human "True Feelings"