Healthcare Trend Forecasts for a Healthy and Happy Future [1]Predicting the Future and Potential Strategies for the Growing Health-Indifferent Segment
Kunihiro Nishizawa
Salta Press Co., Ltd.
Takizawa Naho
Dentsu Inc.
Dentsu Inc. has launched 'Healthcare Trend Forecast 50,' an information tool that predicts 50 key trends (future developments) in the healthcare market from a mid-term perspective, designed to support new business ideation and product/service development.
This tool extracts five trends from the megatrends generally predicted to occur, which are expected to have a particularly significant impact on the healthcare market. It forecasts what currents might emerge in the healthcare market under the influence of each megatrend.
This series will pick out themes from the predicted 50 healthcare trends that deserve special attention. We will invite leading experts in each field as guest speakers to explore the future in greater depth.
The first theme we address is the future outlook for the "health-indifferent segment." What role will this group, uninterested in improving dietary or exercise habits, play in the healthcare market? Kunihiro Nishizawa, former editor-in-chief of Nikkei Health and health/medical editor and writer, and Naho Takizawa of the Dentsu Inc. Healthcare Team explore this question.
<Table of Contents>
▼Why Focus on the Growing Health-Indifferent Segment?
▼Could the Health-Indifferent Segment Include "People Without Desires"?
▼What Are the Characteristics and Reality of the Health-Indifferent Segment?
▼What Are the Key Points to Motivate the Health-Indifferent Segment to Take Health Actions?
▼How Will Our Future Change if We Win Over the Health-Indifferent Segment?
Why should we pay attention to the growing health-indifferent group?
Takizawa: In my experience handling marketing strategies, the health-indifferent group—those with zero interest in health—tended to be a low-priority target. However, when I reconsidered future healthcare trends from a medium-to-long-term perspective, I began to see their existence as a theme worthy of attention. Why should we focus on the health-indifferent group? That's where I want to start.
The cluster analysis from Dentsu Inc. Healthcare Team's " Wellness 10,000 Survey " categorizes consumers into seven types. In the data below, the left side represents higher health consciousness, while the right side shows lower health consciousness. However, it's clear that even within the high and low health consciousness zones, there are various distinct types.
Nishizawa: It's interesting that even among those with low health awareness, there are different types like the "At Least Mentally Positive Group," the "Low Health Interest Group," and the "Totally Indifferent Group."
Takizawa: What's noteworthy here is the upward trend in the "Completely Indifferent Group" from 2021 to 2024. While a certain number of indifferent individuals appear in quantitative surveys, even accounting for that baseline, we can see this group is expanding at a high pace.
Combined with the "somewhat positive" and "low health concern" groups, who also exhibit very weak health awareness and behavior, they now account for about 40% of the total population.
Even if they take almost no health actions, their sheer volume is too large to simply leave them with low priority. Delving deeper into their characteristics and grasping the future profile of this potentially expanding health-indifferent group is one of the key reasons we focused on this in this study.
Could the health-indifferent group include "unambitious people"?
Nishizawa: What about the gender ratio and age characteristics of the low health awareness segment?
Takizawa: Looking at the demographics of the three types within the health-indifferent segment, men tend to be more prevalent. Notably, among the "Completely Indifferent Group," men in their 20s to 40s account for about 50% of the total.
Nishizawa: Comparing responses to the question "Do you want to live to 100?" across several countries, Japan reportedly had the lowest percentage of people who answered "yes." Listening to you, I get the sense that this group—the "Everything-Indifferent Group" and other health-indifferent segments—might be people with low expectations for the future...
Takizawa: As we continue this survey annually, we've increasingly noticed in recent years that the characteristics of the health-indifferent group are changing with the times. In the old Wellness 10,000 Survey, most of those classified as health-indifferent were, as the name suggests, people who seemed genuinely uninterested in health. But among today's health-indifferent group, we hypothesize that it includes not only such people but also those who are "unambitious." Could this type of person increase further in the future?
Nishizawa: Yes, I definitely think the characteristics and nature of the health-indifferent group are changing with the times.
Takizawa: Especially among younger generations, there's a growing number of people embracing a "don't want much" mindset or minimalist thinking. Surveys also show that one in four people have no hobbies, and more people consider "dating a hassle."
For example, precisely because they are unambitious, they might have fewer particularities or desires regarding food, like "I want to eat junk food even if it's bad for me." Paradoxically, this could lead to a healthier diet. People without hobbies that make them lose track of time, like gaming or watching videos, might also have fewer late nights and less sleep deprivation. If people with low desire actually have an unconscious potential for a "healthy lifestyle," it's a huge waste to lump them together with the health-indifferent group and not explore that further.
N ishizawa: I see. In that case, it might be interesting to label that group something like the "minimal health group" and examine the differences from the health-indifferent group. Unexpected connections to health might emerge.
What are the characteristics and realities of the health-indifferent group?
Nishizawa: How do the characteristics and realities of the health-indifferent group show up in the survey?
Takizawa: Here's some characteristic data regarding the 〈Indifferent to Everything〉 group. While they practice almost no other health behaviors, they showed higher practice rates than other clusters for specific actions: 25.4% "share what they do for their body or health on SNS or blogs," and 20.0% "use video content at home to exercise." Given that this cluster predominantly consists of people in their 20s and 30s, we can interpret this as age characteristics reflecting in health awareness and behavior. While the numbers may be small and skewed, it suggests a potential preference for engaging in specific health behaviors and sharing them.
Nishizawa: It's curious that despite claiming indifference to everything, quite a few people are actively sharing on social media. Perhaps those engaging in such behavior don't consider physical activity at home or sharing information about it as "health actions." In other words, they might actually set the bar for health actions quite high and judge themselves against that standard, thinking "I'm not doing anything significant." Among this health-indifferent group, there might be people who possess a certain level of health literacy and their own internal compass, tending not to be swayed by others.
Takizawa: That seems like a possibility. If we delve into their characteristics and reality, it might not be that they're simply uninterested in health. They might have their own "personal judgment criteria" or a "time-cost/cost-benefit awareness." So, they might not understand the rationale behind frequently discussed topics, or they might lack motivation for solid, legitimate health actions that don't yield immediate, tangible results.
What are the key points to get health-disinterested people to take health actions?
Takizawa: If we predict that the health-indifferent segment will change its characteristics and volume in the future, becoming a target we can't afford to overlook, what facts or trends should we focus on now to capture this segment?
Nishizawa: Observing the health-indifferent group's behavior, they seem to use online services, post on social media, and show affinity with digital and cutting-edge technologies. For example, research on aging control has advanced dramatically worldwide in recent years. In Japan, too, tests that reveal how much a person is aging are being developed. Take the "Epiclock®" test service, for instance. It calculates biological age*1 from a blood sample, allowing individuals to understand their aging level and rate. So, someone might be 36 years old chronologically but have a biological age of 42. This visualizes their aging level and risk factors, potentially leading them to reevaluate their lifestyle habits.
While this approach carries some elements of fearmongering, visualizing the significance and outcomes of health behaviors based on such biological data could be one method to encourage behavioral change among those indifferent to health.
*1 Biological age: Unlike chronological age, this is the age calculated based on the state of cells and tissues within the body.
Takizawa: It's amazing how "aging," which tends to be a vague concept, can be concretely visualized based on solid evidence showing how it manifests in one's own body.
Nishizawa: While aging is a major risk factor for lifestyle-related diseases like cancer, type 2 diabetes, and dyslipidemia, recent research has revealed that the first significant peak in aging progression likely occurs during youth. The data below analyzes the levels of proteins related to aging in the blood of 4,263 men and women aged 18 to 95. We can see that proteins related to aging increase significantly around ages 34, 60, and 78, indicating a rapid acceleration of aging.
Seeing this, I was surprised to learn that our bodies experience their first major surge in aging during our 20s and 30s. This period is often busy with work, leading to disrupted lifestyles and a tendency to push ourselves too hard. Because resilience is still high at this stage, such habits likely accelerate aging without noticeable symptoms. Conversely, this suggests that by establishing healthy habits like diet and exercise starting in this period, we may be able to slow the aging process and extend our healthy lifespan.
Takizawa: It's shocking to learn that aging begins in one's 20s.
Nishizawa: It's hard to be conscious of aging when you're young. So, let me share some more accessible data.
Consider the findings from the "Dunedin Study," a long-term health tracking project conducted in Dunedin, New Zealand. It analyzed approximately 1,000 individuals born in 1972-73, starting at age 26, tracking changes across 18 indicators including physical health, mental health, and lifestyle habits. Looking at data 12 years later, even among 38-year-olds, biological age (internal age) varied by over 10 years between individuals. Furthermore, those with a biologically older age also appeared proportionally older. We need to effectively and memorably convey that such clear risk signs exist.
Takizawa: Presenting such concrete, personally relevant disadvantages seems highly impactful. That said, how might we prompt behavioral change among health-disinterested groups unlikely to suddenly adopt drastic health habits?
Nishizawa: Considering dietary habits and nutrition management, in the US, many commercially available cereals—often containing whole grains rich in fiber and antioxidants—are mandated to have nutrients like B vitamins added. Most milk also has vitamin D fortified. This national-level initiative ensures people can consume crucial nutrients often lacking by simply eating these cereals with milk.
Building such a system in Japan, one that guarantees citizens a minimum level of nutrition regardless of income, might be difficult. However, it should be possible for food manufacturers to develop appealing products fortified with these essential nutrients and tap into the "minimal health segment" within the health-indifferent population. Indeed, products hinting at this direction are already emerging.
For example, the "Frugra®" series (Calbee) and the "Complete Meal" series (Nissin Foods). The common thread is that people eat them because they're tasty and convenient, and that consumption could potentially lead to better health.
It would also be ideal, though extremely difficult, to curb the spread of irresponsible health information and fake news that lacks data sources (references). In this regard, we need universities, the government, or even corporations and wealthy individuals to systematically provide evidence-based information and develop services that help anyone improve their health literacy. Think of it as a health version of Khan Academy※2.
Local governments and companies offering products and services based on evidence obtained through proper procedures could also be a catalyst to engage the health-indifferent segment, who are conscious of time and cost efficiency.
Takizawa: Hearing your story, Nishizawa-san, reminded me of an initiative that really resonated with the insights of health-indifferent groups. Are you familiar with the "Adachi Veggie Life" health project? It started in Adachi Ward, Tokyo, in 2013 as a diabetes countermeasure.
Two reasons caught my attention. First, while diabetes prevention initiatives often target middle-aged and older adults, "Adachi Veggie Life" strategically targets younger generations with low vegetable intake. I saw its potential to embed healthy habits early in life. Second, I found its design brilliant: for example, ordering lunch at participating restaurants automatically includes a salad first. This encourages natural behavioral change without making participants feel burdened or constrained, allowing them to think, "I changed my actions for my health, I did my best."
※2 Khan Academy = An online learning service accessible to anyone, targeting elementary through high school students. It covers various subjects including math, physics, chemistry, economics, and history.
How will our future change if we win over the health-indifferent segment?
Takizawa: So far, we've explored the realities of the health-indifferent group and identified key trends for the future. Finally, please share your prediction, Nishizawa-san: How will society change going forward if we successfully engage this health-indifferent group?
Nishizawa: Many benefits come to mind, but one significant one is undoubtedly the economic impact. A study*3 based on the 2017 U.S. Census calculated the economic impact of extending healthy life expectancy. It found that if, for example, aging-suppression technology accessible to everyone increased the average life expectancy of all Americans by one year, the total willingness-to-pay (WTP) – an indicator of potential consumer market size – would increase by a staggering $37.6 trillion USD.
Takizawa: So, the longer people remain youthful and energetic, the more their consumption behavior improves?
Nishizawa: Exactly. The calculation suggests that extending healthy life expectancy and increasing the number of active individuals directly leads to greater consumption and economic revitalization. These effects are orders of magnitude larger than the savings from reduced healthcare costs achieved through maintaining health.
If the health-indifferent segment, predominantly comprised of those in their 20s to 40s, were to adopt healthier behaviors leading to extended healthy lifespans, the resulting economic stimulation could potentially outweigh the benefits of merely alleviating healthcare cost pressures.
Takizawa: To create a brighter future and foster healthy growth in the healthcare market, we need to focus on the expansion and changing characteristics of this health-indifferent group.
※3 Source: Table 4 from Nat Aging. 2021 Jul;1(7):616-623.
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Author
Kunihiro Nishizawa
Salta Press Co., Ltd.
Healthcare Journalist (Member of the Diet Journalists Association) / Editor. After working at Shogakukan, joined Nikkei BP in 1991. Appointed Deputy Editor-in-Chief upon the launch of Nikkei Health in 1998. Served as Editor-in-Chief of the magazine from 2005. Launched Premier Nikkei Health in 2008 and served as its Editor-in-Chief until 2010. From 2010 to 2014, concurrently served as producer for magazines including Nikkei Health and as Vice President of Techno Associates, a consulting firm jointly established by Nikkei BP and Mitsubishi Corporation. From March 2016, served as Senior Researcher at Nikkei BP Hit Research Institute. Left the company in March 2018 and became a Visiting Researcher at Nikkei BP Research Institute.
Takizawa Naho
Dentsu Inc.
Specialized Planner in Medical and Healthcare. Responsible for business/marketing strategy and planning/consulting for new business development related to food, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, and health tech services.
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