Forecasting the Risks of 2016!

First, this award is thanks to the companies that cooperated in the survey, and we would like to take this opportunity to express our gratitude to all responding companies. The survey was recognized for enabling the "visualization" of a company's strengths and weaknesses in crisis management through data, addressing areas where management had previously relied solely on experience and intuition. In today's environment where communication plays an increasingly vital role during crises, we are very pleased that this was acknowledged as an innovation/skill within the PR industry. We sincerely hope this work can be of some assistance to risk management and public relations departments grappling with crisis management challenges on a daily basis.

During the recent final judging session for the "PR Award Grand Prix," I also pointed out that improving the foresight of Japanese companies is a key challenge. This series' #4 installment, "Anticipatory Power: The Decisive Factor in Crisis Management!", also highlights the importance of "anticipatory power". As this is the first contribution to the series in 2016, we will attempt to anticipate risks likely to occur this year. Considering planned changes in legal systems and shifts in social, political, and economic trends scheduled for 2016, we have considered potential risks for the year.

■The Risk to Anticipate: "Terrorism"

First and foremost, the risk requiring the highest vigilance is "terrorism." Media reporters I spoke with at year's end cited "terrorism" as the top risk to watch. The tragic simultaneous terrorist attacks in Paris, France, last November remain fresh in memory, and the Islamic State's activities are said to be intensifying. Terrorism is not just a distant issue affecting other countries; it must be viewed as a much more personal threat.

As you know, Japan will host the G7 Summit (Ise-Shima Summit) on May 26-27 this year, drawing global attention. Naturally, media outlets from around the world will visit Japan to cover the summit. The International Media Center (IMC), serving as the hub for summit coverage and editing, will be set up at the Mie Prefectural Sun Arena in Asama-cho, Ise City. It is said that approximately 5,000 media personnel from worldwide will gather there. From a terrorist's perspective, the Ise-Shima Summit is an ideal opportunity to broadcast their terrorist acts to the entire world.

Naturally, tight security will be in place around Ise-Shima. However, if the terrorists' goal is simply to broadcast their actions globally, the location within Japan is irrelevant. The possibility of a terrorist attack occurring in major cities like Tokyo or Osaka cannot be ruled out. Cases where companies become entangled in some form of "terrorism," similar to the 2013 Algeria hostage crisis, are also entirely conceivable. In our crisis management capability survey, "terrorism" ranked high among crisis events attracting media attention, even more so than corporate crises. Media interest in "terrorism" is extremely high. Furthermore, "terrorism" isn't limited to explosions or mass shootings. Numerous forms of "terrorism" threatening civilian life are possible. Infrastructure companies, especially those requiring stable supply, must exercise the utmost caution and prepare for contingencies.

■Noteworthy Social Trends and Risks

Next, social trends are crucial for anticipating risks. Let's also focus on societal movements that aid in risk prediction.

January: Full Implementation of the "My Number" System
Starting in January, My Number will be required for administrative procedures related to social security, taxes, and disaster response. Private companies will also collect My Number information in various situations. Since My Number is personal information, organizations holding large volumes of it must assess the risk of leaks. If an information leak occurs as the first case after the system's introduction, it will attract greater public criticism than usual, requiring particular caution.

April: Submission of Action Plans for the "Act on Promotion of Women's Participation and Advancement in the Workplace"
The Act on Promotion of Women's Participation and Advancement in the Workplace was enacted to create an environment where women can fully utilize their abilities and thrive in their professional lives according to their aspirations. Large companies with 301 or more employees are now required to formulate action plans for promoting women's advancement and disclose information regarding their own utilization of female employees. While this will lead to the disclosure of information on women's advancement at various companies, rapidly changing workplaces where women are not thriving is not easy. Failing to disclose any information risks damaging the company's brand. First, companies should understand the current status of female employee utilization and consider how to promote women's advancement.

April: Full Liberalization of Electricity Retail
The "Full Liberalization of Electricity Retail" is a reform that eases regulations like regional monopolies and promotes entry by non-regional power companies, thereby providing consumers with choices. Various companies have announced their entry, and services like bundled discounts are diversifying. It is necessary to make advertising and other displays of these bundled discounts easier to understand and strengthen consumer comprehension. If consumers find them difficult to understand, it is highly likely to lead to a surge in complaints.

Around June: Shareholders' Meeting (First Meeting After Corporate Governance Code Implementation)
The Corporate Governance Code was introduced last year, placing greater emphasis on dialogue between companies and shareholders. Recent major social issues like accounting fraud have heightened societal focus on shareholder engagement. How has the Corporate Governance Code changed the relationship between companies and shareholders? Given the high level of societal attention, careful handling is essential.

Late June to July: Regular House of Councillors Election (First Election Allowing 18-Year-Olds to Vote)
A House of Councillors election is scheduled for early summer. Some media reporters I met late last year suggested it could become a "double election" involving both houses. If that happens, the entire country would likely be engulfed in election fever. Furthermore, this House of Councillors election will mark the first time 18-year-olds are eligible to vote. As this is a first, the possibility of confusion cannot be ruled out. For example, issues such as "election notices not reaching 18-year-olds accurately" or "young people unknowingly violating the Public Offices Election Act by conducting campaign activities via email" could arise. In any case, attention will focus on young people aged 18 and above, requiring close monitoring of future developments.

November: U.S. Presidential Election
While it remains unclear who will become president, the outcome will significantly impact Japan, both economically and in terms of security. Japan must closely monitor U.S. developments and prepare its response accordingly.

Numerous other risks may also emerge alongside the shifting social trends of 2016. We hope this information will be of some assistance in enhancing crisis management capabilities, enabling the anticipation of risks and preparation for contingencies.