Why Are Singles Increasing!? The Changing Risks of Family Structures (Part 1)

In modern Japan, the rate of lifelong unmarried individuals continues to rise year after year. It is estimated that by 2040, over 200,000 singles will die in isolation annually. The very nature of family and household structures can no longer be defined by traditional concepts and values.
Dentsu Inc. Diversity Lab (DDL) has coined the term "Life Unit" for these emerging diverse family forms. Through interviews with experts, we confront the changing landscape of family and household structures.

For our second interview, we spoke with Professor Masahiro Yamada, known as the originator of the term "parasite singles" and author of notable works such as "The 'Marriage Hunting' Era" (co-authored with Momoko Shirakawa) and "Family Refugees: The Shock of a 25% Lifetime Unmarried Rate Society." Drawing on his insights as someone who has sounded the alarm on declining marriage rates since the 1990s, Professor Yamada discussed the risks inherent in modern families and the societal changes emerging as singledom advances.

 

The prewar household system had a place for singles

Kodaira: In Japan, while one-person and two-person households are increasing, I still feel society remains fixated on the image of the "four-person household: husband, wife, and two children." At DDL, as society changes, we want to focus on the new forms of families and households emerging and consider, together with media and companies, what families and households should become in the future. This time, I'd like to hear your perspective on the issue of increasing singleness in Japan.

Yamada: I became interested in the trend of people remaining unmarried early on, conducting repeated surveys both domestically and internationally, and warning of the crisis it poses. However, nearly 20 years later, social and economic systems, as well as people's attitudes, have hardly changed, and the single population continues to grow.

Furudaira: When did singles start increasing so dramatically? I imagine unmarried people existed in the past too.

Yamada: I believe the rise in singles, meaning those living alone, began after the war. Of course, unmarried people existed before that too—those who never married, those who separated. For example, the divorce rate in the Tohoku region during the Edo period was reportedly nearly 50%. Even after marriage, about half of couples separated—it was practically a divorce-heavy society.
Those who separated returned to their parents' homes, while unmarried individuals continued living there. This was possible because the pre-war family system was structured around each family's business. If the parents' home couldn't support a single person, religious institutions like temples would take them in. Pre-war society had places for singles.
The pre-war family system can be described as one where the family, firmly grounded in its business, existed as a solid foundation, with individuals coming and going within it.

Kodaira: So even as singles, they weren't truly alone.

Yamada: Exactly. After the war, it became the norm for everyone to marry and never divorce, and society lost its place for singles. It became a society demanding that everyone marry, create their own new family, and maintain it.

Furui: And they were expected to do it all on their own.

Yamada: Exactly. After the war, the lifestyle that spread was: leave your parents' home upon becoming an adult, get married, have children, and buy your own home. And then, you had to support yourself entirely on your own until your children were there for you at the end. Every social system after the war was built on the assumption that everyone would marry and have children. For a while after the war, when most people married and even if they divorced, many remarried, singles were the exception.

 

Is Asia's culture that values dependence accelerating the rise of singles!?

Kodaira: Why did singles, once the exception, increase so dramatically?

Yamada: One reason is that Japan doesn't place a strong emphasis on independence. In Japan and most Asian countries, dependence isn't seen as shameful. If you're going to depend on someone, it's considered wise to find a good person to depend on.

Furudaira: That's fascinating. Could you elaborate a bit more?

Yamada: For example, surveys often ask women about the "annual income they desire in a marriage partner." When this was presented in the UK, people were shocked: "Marriage should be based on love. It's absurd to care about the other person's income. Do you really ask women such a rude question in Japan?"
Well, British women might secretly be happier if the person they fell for had a high income. They just wouldn't say it out loud.

Kodaira: That's a matter of pride for Western women. Among Japanese women, though, when marriage comes up, the conversation often turns to the partner's occupation or income.

Yamada: In the West, there's a deeply rooted belief that depending on someone for anything is shameful. They see saying you marry because someone has money, or can't marry because they don't, as a betrayal of love.
In Asia, when women consider marriage, they often look first at the partner's income or their parents' assets. Japanese men rarely ask their wives to work.

Kodaira: Is that because the stereotype that the husband should support the family is deeply ingrained?

Yamada: Stereotypes and pride are two sides of the same coin. In Japan, there's a notion that a man who can't support his wife alone is unworthy as a man. Postwar Japanese male pride has been maintained by supporting and cherishing women.
That's precisely why maid cafes are so fascinating and popular in Japan and Asia, while being met with some skepticism in parts of Europe and America.

Kodaira: That makes perfect sense.

Yamada: Looking at survey results from single men, many cite "lack of confidence in supporting a woman" as their reason for not marrying. Meanwhile, younger women often say things like "men should work while women protect the home."

Furudaira: It's said many young women still aspire to be full-time housewives. While recent times emphasize promoting greater female participation and the importance of women working, if women's sense of "independence" grows stronger, perhaps the hurdle for men to marry would lower.

 

The risks families face have already changed

Furudaira: In your book, you write that "it's important for society to relax the definition of family and recognize diverse family structures." How do you think we can break away from traditional concepts?

Yamada: First, we must change the mindset that everything must be handled within the family. For example, if a child declares personal bankruptcy, the obligation to repay the debt falls on the parents as guarantors. It's a system where the financial burden inevitably falls back on the family. In the U.S., even if a child goes bankrupt, the parents don't pay off that debt. Debt is personal.
This applies to debt and to caregiving. A system where one person's failure drags the whole family down makes marriage frightening.

Furudaira: I see parallels with the student loan issue that's been in the news lately.

Yamada: When researching, we hear all sorts of stories. One woman said every time she and her husband argued, he'd say, "Who's paying off your student loans?" and she couldn't say anything back. Also, something I recently published in the newspaper that got a huge response: a student was told by her mother, "You mustn't date someone who uses student loans." There was also a couple who both had student loans to repay and couldn't marry until they saw a way to pay them off. Over the past decade, partly due to declining incomes among the parent generation, roughly one in two students now takes out loans. The moment they marry, their household budget faces a monthly deficit of up to ¥50,000 for both individuals.

Kodaira: That makes it really hard to move from dating to marriage, doesn't it?

Yamada: All the systems built after the war, which assume marriage, are holding them back. Laws, economics, everything.
Once married, women could live off their husband's stable income and didn't need to worry about anything except if he died or got seriously ill. What about now? The divorce rate is about 35%. We're in an era where one in three couples splits up.

Furudaira: So the risks families face have changed.

Yamada: If divorce happens, the biggest point of contention is what happens to the family home. Many people fight over property taxes. Japanese people buy homes with the firm resolve to protect them at all costs for their family, so when it comes to splitting up, it's a huge problem. They've built them to their own specifications, making them hard to sell.

Furudaira: Is it different overseas?

Yamada: In Europe, divorce and cohabitation are common, but disposing of a home doesn't involve high costs, so people don't suffer significant losses. The housing market has a well-established resale market. Don't you think Japan's housing system is rigid and overly focused on homeownership?

Furui: So Japanese society isn't designed for singles?

Yamada: More than that, it doesn't adapt to the fact that "families have become a risk." It doesn't adapt to the uncertainty of when people will marry or when they might separate. The reality is, more people aren't marrying at all. I sometimes give lectures for housing manufacturers, and I emphasize this point. That's why I tell them, "You can't sell houses using the old methods anymore."
It's the same when I speak at insurance companies. Historically, many insurance products targeted households where the husband was the breadwinner and the wife was a stay-at-home or part-time worker. Since the probability of the husband dying while still working was less than 1%, you could get high coverage for low premiums.

But today, the probability of divorce far exceeds the probability of the husband dying while still working.
Even if you create divorce insurance, with one-third of marriages ending in divorce, such insurance wouldn't be viable. Furthermore, the biggest reason for divorce is the husband's layoff or reduced income. Until now, insurance coverage didn't include compensation when the husband's income decreased.

Kodaira: It seems the insurance model wouldn't work. As risks change, so do the services consumers want. How do you think companies perceive these shifts?

Yamada: The fact that they called me suggests they've realized the old ways won't work anymore. That said, traditional family structures are still the majority, and while single-person households exist, many companies are probably still figuring out how to respond to new family and household forms.

Kodaira: Embracing different values and risks than before might take courage, but if we look closely, I feel we can see the buds of new products and services that are different from what we've had until now.

Continued in Part 2