Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World—and Why Things Are Better Than You Think

This time, we're featuring "Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World—and Why Things Are Better Than You Think" by Hans Rosling et al. (Nikkei BP).

While mindfulness refers to "a state of mind focused solely on the present moment," as practiced in meditation, then perhaps factfulness could be described as "a rational approach focused solely on facts to clarify the state of the world." Why must we emphasize such a method? Because humans easily distort their perception of facts due to several instinct-based biases. Oh no, you're probably thinking, "That's not me!" (I certainly did too).

Are you smarter than a chimpanzee?

This book features a "Chimpanzee Quiz" with multiple-choice questions about global facts. Since it's multiple choice, even a chimpanzee answering randomly would get a 1/3 chance of getting it right. But can you beat the chimpanzee on this quiz!? You can challenge 12 of the quizzes featured in the book on this site.

How did you do? I was completely defeated by the chimpanzee... But don't worry. The author has administered these quizzes worldwide for years, and even people considered global elites consistently score lower than chimpanzees!

However, this result is no laughing matter. If those steering nations and the world misjudge the realities of issues like "poverty," "gender equality," "population projections," and "environmental measures," it could lead humanity down the wrong path—a deeply serious situation. While instinct-based cognitive shortcuts greatly contributed to survival rates in harsh environments of the past, the speed at which society and technology have evolved far outpaces human genetic evolution. As a result, human cognitive functions themselves have become outdated, making us prone to making erroneous judgments.

To address this situation, the author established the Gapminder Foundation and has spent years advocating for covering the cognitive pitfalls caused by human instincts with knowledge and reason. This book represents the culmination of that effort.

The necessary form of reason for solving problems is "factfulness."

The author categorizes the instincts that distort human cognition into the following ten:

① The Divide Instinct
② The Negative Bias
③ The Linearity Instinct
④ Fear Instinct
⑤ Overestimation Instinct
⑥ Pattern-Forming Instinct
⑦Fatalism Instinct
⑧Simplification Instinct
⑨Blame-Seeking Instinct
⑩Impatience Instinct

For details, please refer to the book itself, but as you may have sensed from this brief overview, humans fundamentally tend to perceive the status quo negatively, which is why such narratives capture attention. Aren't the talk shows and social media surrounding you right now overflowing with precisely this kind of content – simplifying matters, obsessing over finding someone to blame, and fueling fear and impatience with stories claiming the world is steadily getting worse?

However, what the author clearly demonstrates with data in this book is the fact that, viewed from a macro perspective, the world is undoubtedly getting better. And the driving force behind this progress, he argues, is not some "single hero," but rather technology and social infrastructure (the individual people working on the ground to address various problems).

Author Hans Röllig, originally a physician, spent 20 years researching a debilitating endemic disease (named "konzo") deep in Africa. During this work, he pinpointed the cause: cassava, the staple food consumed locally. (There's an episode in Black Jack that seems to be based on this story.) Why did this staple food, eaten for generations, suddenly become the cause of disease? It was known that cassava contained toxins, so people traditionally spent three days deactivating them before eating. However, a severe nationwide crop failure led to famine. The government bought up cassava at unprecedented high prices, prompting impoverished farmers to sell their entire harvest. Returning home starving, they pulled up cassava roots without deactivating the toxins and ate them. This was the cause of the disease outbreak. In other words, this was not simply a story about a disease; the underlying causes were poverty and a food crisis.

This background led the author to study economics, society, toxins, and food. This episode illustrates that solving problems like diseases requires both meticulous analysis based on facts and, depending on the cause, sometimes tackling improvements to larger systems like the economy or society. Merely "simplifying matters, obsessing over finding someone to blame, and stoking fear and anxiety that the world is getting worse and worse" accomplishes nothing in solving the issues.

Two Approaches Necessary for Solving Real-World Problems

In the field of advertising communication, seminal works like "Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion" represent behavioral economics literature. This book and such works share the same theme: "human cognitive quirks ≈ bugs (outdated mental models)."

When communicating with people, we must consider effective ways to convey messages based on these quirks. Conversely, to tackle real-world problems, we need to eliminate these bugs, correctly face reality, grasp the actual situation, and then devise solutions. These two approaches are two sides of the same coin. Whether in advertising communication or any other field, solving problems always requires addressing both these aspects.

Finally, I have a request for those about to read this book. Though I've briefly touched on the author's motivation for writing it in this column, which might seem contradictory, I urge you—if possible—to read it from beginning to end in one sitting without looking at the author's background or profile.

I happened to read this book without any prior research, and as a result, I found myself deeply moved and tearful by the afterword. It made me resolve to keep a fact-based, rational perspective firmly in mind for the rest of my life. I sincerely hope you all experience the same.

To correctly recognize the current situation for problem-solving, one must diligently confront the facts. However, to move people, one must appeal to their emotions, to their feelings. This might sound a bit like a riddle, but if you read the book through using the method described above, I believe you will understand this feeling for yourself.