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Special Discussion: "2015 Japan Advertising Expenditures" Precisely because we are in an era led by the internet, media must establish their brands.

Hiroyoshi Sunagawa

Hiroyoshi Sunagawa

Rikkyo University

Ritsuya Oku

Ritsuya Oku

Representative of Media Vision Lab

" 2015 Japan Advertising Expenditures " saw double-digit growth in internet advertising spending, leading to a fourth consecutive year of year-on-year growth. Hiroyoshi Sunagawa, Associate Professor at Rikkyo University specializing in broadcast media and journalism, and Ritsuya Oku of DENTSU SOKEN INC. explore the future of advertising and media in the internet era.

立教大准教授 砂川浩慶氏(右)と電通総研 奥律哉氏
Rikkyo University Associate Professor Hiroyoshi Sunagawa (right) and DENTSU SOKEN INC.'s Ritsuya Oku


The Era Where the Internet Leads Advertising Spending Growth

Oku: Japan's advertising expenditure in 2015 reached ¥6.171 trillion, a 100.3% increase year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive year of positive growth. While it did exceed 100% for four straight years from 2012 to 2015, compared to 103.2% in 2012 and 102.9% in 2014, 2015 felt like it barely made it.

The year 2014 drew attention because internet advertising spending exceeded 1 trillion yen. In 2015, it expanded further with double-digit growth, surpassing 1.1 trillion yen, which is what pushed the total above 100%.

Sunagawa: So online advertising was the main driver of overall growth. Students often ask me, "When will online advertising spending overtake TV advertising spending?" Will online advertising's growth continue?

Oku: If growth rates continue as they are, it's said the reversal could happen in about six years. However, while Japan's total advertising spending exceeded 7 trillion yen in 2007, returning to that level seems difficult given recent growth rates. Overseas, there are examples where online advertising spending has surpassed TV advertising spending, but of course, competition between media types occurs, and Japan has its own unique strengths in TV advertising, making predictions difficult.

TV broadcasters are also entering the video space, so the key factor remains online advertising. It all comes down to how the advertising markets related to search-linked ads and video will develop.

砂川氏


TV vs. Internet – The Media Usage Divide Lies with the 40s!?

Sunagawa: There's an interesting survey result regarding the relationship between the internet and mass media, particularly television. According to NHK's "Japanese People and Television 2015," the "most indispensable media" is completely opposite for those in their 20s and 50s. For those in their 50s, TV ranked first at 55%, followed by the internet at 21%. For those in their 20s, however, the internet ranked first at 54%, followed by TV at 25%. In short, over the next 30 years, user perceptions regarding TV and the internet will completely flip.

Oku: Last year, DENTSU SOKEN INC. surveyed each age group about their "reliable information sources/media." Among those aged 50 and above, mass media like terrestrial TV dominated. However, for those aged 30 and below, news curation sites, SNS, and even men's comics/game/anime magazines became more prevalent. When we factor-decomposed the data, the dividing line between mass media orientation and internet orientation was the 40s age group. Those aged 40 and above are people who value trust in mass media, while those under 40 are fully in the internet-oriented camp.

As you mentioned, over the next 15 to 30 years, this boundary will shift toward the older age groups. While growth is anticipated, numerous challenges will also emerge.

奥氏


Future Direction of Internet Advertising

Sunagawa: Given that, we really need to start thinking about how to define online advertising. Advertising in the four mass media outlets is easy to visualize, but with the internet, I think the issue is how to establish metrics or standards.

Oku: Indeed, even on social media, ads appearing on timelines—so-called ad-in content—can be ambiguous, blurring the line between article and advertisement.

Sunagawa: Another point is that while online ads are effective for selling products, they often don't necessarily translate into gaining social recognition or enhancing brand image.

Oku: When it comes to boosting brand awareness online, I think it's strongly influenced by things like someone recommending a product on social media or making it a topic of conversation.

Traditionally, the basic approach was using the four major media: conveying the image through TV spots and detailing it in newspapers. But how do we adapt when media consumption patterns change?

Online advertising is particularly effective for further engaging consumers who already have some interest. The challenge has been how to provide accurate information to consumers who aren't interested. I believe that's why video is gaining attention. Going forward, I think we'll see a demand for media development focused on how to improve awareness rates and brand image.

Sunagawa: Advertising often has a strong element of killing time, but using the internet itself also has a significant time-killing aspect, right?

Oku: If you're seeking answers or solutions, you turn to search-based platforms. But when it comes to killing time, video comes into play. "Flipping through channels" is an old-fashioned way of putting it (laughs), but back then, you'd flip through channels looking for your favorite show.

But today's young people watch videos on YouTube and similar platforms, continuously clicking through other videos suggested by recommendation engines. While they might feel they're watching actively, anything not recommended by the engine might as well not exist. That's a major challenge.

砂川氏と奥氏


The Reliability of Sought-After Information

Sunagawa: Unfortunately, advertising spending on the four mass media has fallen below 100%. But the truth is, the source of online news is newspapers. Various information spreading online also often originates from newspapers when traced back.

Oku: Recently, situations where it's unclear whether the internet or mass media is nested within the other are increasing. There are traditional, mass media-style one-to-many models, like users feeling sympathy for a charismatic blogger's posts online. But there are also cases where writers and readers intermingle, creating a many-to-many state. Communication progresses without clarity on what's original and what's copied.

It's become harder to pinpoint the source of information, or perhaps more accurately, awareness of the original source has grown faint.

The same phenomenon is occurring on television. In surveys asking "What programs do you watch?" or "What were you doing at this time?", when respondents are asked "Which channel was that program broadcast on?", older individuals can name specific broadcasters, but younger people increasingly respond "I don't know."

In the past, "channel number" equated to "such-and-such TV station." Now, with transmission routes via the internet, the source becomes less distinct. This leads to a similar situation where the original can't be traced, or isn't traced.

Sunagawa: Newspapers have very high credibility when it comes to information reliability. Yet, because they aren't leveraging that credibility effectively, users are drifting away. To stem this tide, it's essential to maintain reliability and quality while delivering news that isn't condescending.

砂川氏


Now more than ever, media must establish their brand.

Oku: The reality is that while many people read newspaper-sourced information online, only the content itself gets taken online. The actual reporting and effort behind it become invisible.

When considering attribution—what ultimately drove sales or attracted audiences—original sources were often television or newspapers, yet this contribution is hard to see. This is a tremendous waste, and I believe existing media must re-establish their brands.

Sunagawa: We need to foster greater awareness that even when people engage with online information, they're actually reading newspaper sources.

In recent years, I feel the situation facing advertising media varies significantly by generation. At the same time, each medium possesses a unique texture that only it can deliver. In that sense, the four mass media must also seriously study how to utilize the web. What's happening now is about how to integrate with the web and translate that into advertising value.

奥氏


Web and mass media collaboration generates advertising power

Oku: There are many challenges, but trials are starting at various levels. Honestly, it's faster to just try things than to debate endlessly. If it doesn't work, you can always try again. It's about that internet mindset – not demanding 100% certainty, but starting with a 50/50 chance and building results incrementally.

Sunagawa: It's not about waiting for a proposal to be finalized before starting. If we don't proceed with a hands-on, field-based approach, endless meetings become pointless. Historically, television, radio, and even magazines have always engaged in challenges akin to what we now call internet-style experimentation.

Oku: The line between advertising and communication, or even promotion and advertising, is becoming increasingly blurred. Previously, each medium prioritized self-sufficiency, but lately, we're seeing more cases of collaborating across different arenas.

Sunagawa: The advertising expenditure figures from 2015 clearly suggest that existing media must seriously consider how to collaborate with the internet.

Oku: From the perspective of those whose domain is the internet, the challenge lies in how to incorporate the advertising functions of existing mass media and develop a trustworthy environment.

Sunagawa: I believe that if both sides pool their wisdom, the total advertising budget will increase.
Oku: Thank you for your time today.

砂川氏と奥氏

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Author

Hiroyoshi Sunagawa

Hiroyoshi Sunagawa

Rikkyo University

Joined the National Association of Commercial Broadcasters in Japan in 1986. Served in roles including broadcasting systems, copyright, reporter for the association's journal "Commercial Broadcasting," and head of terrestrial digital broadcasting. Retired in 2006. From the same year, served as Assistant Professor in the Department of Media and Society, Faculty of Sociology, Rikkyo University. Promoted to Associate Professor in April 2007. Primary research themes include media systems and policy theory centered on broadcasting, and journalism studies.

Ritsuya Oku

Ritsuya Oku

Representative of Media Vision Lab

Joined Dentsu Inc. in 1982. Served in Media Services / Radio,TV Division, Media Marketing Division, and later held positions as Fellow at DENTSU SOKEN INC. and Head of Dentsu Media Innovation Lab. Left Dentsu Inc. at the end of June 2024. Established Media Vision Lab, a personal consulting practice. Primarily provides consulting services to media-related companies in the information and communications sector, focusing on three perspectives: business, audience, and technology. Publications include: "The Birth of Neo-Digital Natives: The Internet Generation Evolving Uniquely in Japan" (co-authored, Diamond Inc.), "An Explanatory Guide to 'The TV Theory That Has Come Full Circle' and the Outlook for Broadcasting Services" (co-authored, New Media), "Confirming the Acceptability of Simultaneous Online Streaming of Broadcasts" ("Nextcom" Vol. 2017 No. 32, KDDI Research Institute), "New Media Textbook 2020" (co-authored, Sendenkaigi), "70-Year History of Commercial Broadcasting" (co-authored, National Association of Commercial Broadcasters in Japan), "Broad and Universal Online Distribution / NHK and Commercial Broadcasters: From Competition to Cooperation" ("Journalism" December 2022 issue, Asahi Shimbun), and "Information Media White Paper 2024" (co-authored, Diamond Inc.). Member of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications' "Study Group on the Future of Broadcasting Systems in the Digital Age." Member of the Publishing and Editorial Committee, NPO/Broadcasting Critics Conference.

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