Koichiro Eto × Yasuhiro Tsuchiya: Part 2 "Culture evolves by creating island universes."

Following the first part, planner Yasuhiro Tsuchiya interviews Koichiro Eto, Executive Committee Chair of the Nico Nico Gakkai Beta. What does Eto mean when he says, "Because Japan's internet culture is cutting-edge, Japanese rules will spread worldwide"?

I believe the subcommittees will eventually continue as independent research groups.

Tsuchiya: Since Nico Nico Gakkai Beta is scheduled to end after five years, with only two years remaining, what do you foresee for its future?

Eto: First, subcommittees are rapidly forming. Previously, we had subcommittees like the Data Research Group and the "Fungus Broadcasting Station" mushroom research group under Nico Nico Gakkai Beta. Now, we've expanded significantly with groups like the "Space Research Group" and the "Sports Day Club."

Tsuchiya: Have these subcommittees become independent from Nico Nico Gakkai Beta?

Eto: To be precise, they haven't left the hands of Nico Nico Gakkai Beta; they've left my hands. If someone says, "I want to start this kind of research group," I say, "Sure," and then they go ahead and start it themselves. I believe these subcommittees will eventually continue as their own independent research groups.

Tsuchiya: Hearing about how they start and then the subcommittees form and stick around, just listening to that makes it sound incredibly calculated.

Eto: If you ask me, "Was it calculated?" the answer is no. Each stage involved its own struggles, with situations like, "We really wanted to do it this way, but various circumstances led to this outcome," piling up until we reached the current state. Initially, I was skeptical about whether user-participatory research could truly be realized, but in the end, it has become a brilliantly successful platform for achieving just that. Now, even the operations have moved away from professional researchers. Initially, professional researchers led the operations, but with each iteration, the number of general operations committee members increased. By the 6th Symposium, 80% of the operations committee members were general participants. It completely shifted from a conference style where professional researchers operated to support wild researchers, to a conference where both operations and presentations are led by general participants.

Tsuchiya: Did any problems arise from having laypeople handle the operations?

Eto: When it's just professional researchers, they have extensive conference experience and can communicate easily, so operations run smoothly. But when you tell people of varying ages and experience levels, "Just do this," the difficulty lies in ensuring they understand exactly "this."

Tsuchiya: I see. What motivates the general public to participate?

Eto: The biggest reason is simply that they like Nico Nico Gakkai Beta and want to get involved. I think the reason is that they find the presentations by these "wild researchers," or people from all walks of life, interesting and want to support the event.

Tsuchiya: What kind of future developments do you foresee for the core of the Nico Nico Gakkai Beta?

Eto: Ideally, when someone wants to do research but lacks funding, we could offer a crowdfunding-like mechanism to raise money. But this presents hurdles for both researchers and supporters. Ultimately, I hope Nico Nico Gakkai Beta can bridge that gap.

Tsuchiya: I see. Platforms like Experiment overseas, and Japan's own academist, are emerging to support research funding. Recently, startups gaining major traction on Kickstarter are increasing, and it would be great if such movements became active not just in business but also in the research field. Certainly, for that to happen, the language and mechanisms connecting researchers and the general public seem crucial.

I think the number of people creating apps will increase a hundredfold or a thousandfold and become commonplace.

Tsuchiya: This series explores the question of where Japan's internet and technology are headed. Mr. Eto, you've been active since the early days of Japan's internet culture, and to me, you're like a living encyclopedia. I'd love to hear your predictions for the future.

Eto: Lately, I've been thinking, "The world has turned out more like I expected than I thought it would." For example, the future we predicted around 1995 – "This is how things will be in 10 years" – is happening right now. Though sometimes it's 10 years late (laughs). Predictions based on "theoretically, the future should be like this" do tend to come true.

Tsuchiya: What are some specific examples?

Eto: I used to predict how long each new technology would survive whenever I learned about it. For example, remember how mice used to have balls? Optical mice existed back then, but they were inaccurate and inconvenient. Since semiconductor technology improves rapidly, I thought the inaccuracy would disappear quickly, so "mice with balls will eventually disappear." But that transition took longer than I expected.

Also, back when MDs were at their peak, I thought, "Silicon audio will eventually take over." I expected this shift to happen quickly, but it took much longer than anticipated. Before silicon audio arrived, the iPod—hard disk audio—came out. Only after that gained traction did the silicon audio era finally begin. So, while my predictions were ultimately correct, I realized it just takes longer than expected.

That said, some things happen faster than expected. Smartphones evolved far beyond what I anticipated. I thought conventional cell phones would just keep developing in their existing form.

Tsuchiya: What about more recent developments? For example, personal fabrication (individual manufacturing using computers and networks)?

Eto: I don't consider it a particularly new phenomenon. I first learned about 3D printers about 25 years ago, and even then, I found it fascinating that calculations could be transformed into physical shapes. The existence of 3D printers itself is a given; they started becoming widely available 25 years later when patents expired, but I think that was foreseeable even before that.

However, the fact that Fab Labs (workshops equipped with tools like 3D printers and cutting machines, aiming to make "almost anything") have proliferated and spread throughout society in response to this is truly remarkable. I believe this change is bearing fruit.

The change I'm most excited about lately is the global expansion of smartphone app development. The app world relies heavily on non-verbal elements like images and motion, making it easy to transcend national and cultural boundaries. So, I think we'll increasingly see apps with unprecedented ideas emerging from various countries, influencing others and forming new cultural spheres.

Tsuchiya: You can really feel cultural differences in the Apple Store rankings, right? In Islamic countries, apps like "Qibla Locator"—which shows the direction of Mecca and prayer times—often rank high. Then, inspired by that, Japanese artists create fascinating apps where you can set your own "spiritual sanctuary" and worship there... You really sense the potential for change coming from different cultural spheres like that.

Eto: Right now, highly skilled programmers gather in Silicon Valley, and that's where new things are born. But I think that will change too. I believe the number of people creating apps will increase a hundredfold or a thousandfold, becoming commonplace.

Tsuchiya: When do you think that future will arrive?

Eto: It's a matter of degree, but I think the situation will change within the next 5 to 6 years. As a sign of this change, there's Swift, the new programming language Apple released. I believe this has the potential to be "the last programming language." Some people might judge Swift by its appearance and think it's a scripting language, but the crucial point is that it runs at speeds comparable to C.

Currently, when building apps, different programming languages are used for the client and server sides, which is accepted as normal but inefficient. It would be better to write both client and server in one language. Swift will become central to iOS app development going forward. Once that happens, there will likely be a desire to write server-side programs in Swift too. Given its high speed comparable to C, I believe it has significant potential. If that happens, Swift could potentially be used across all domains in the future.

Tsuchiya: I see. There's also a movement in school education to make programming a required subject or a basic liberal arts skill. It seems like it will eventually become commonplace for everyone to write code for themselves. If a definitive "final programming language" emerges that drastically lowers the learning cost of programming when creating something, this might happen surprisingly quickly.

Eto: Until recently, computer science departments at American universities weren't attracting many students, but now they're filling up again. I think it's because smartphones have genuinely transformed people's lives, and that appeal is drawing them back.

Japan's internet culture is cutting-edge, so Japanese culture will spread worldwide

Tsuchiya: I feel Japan's internet culture has evolved slightly differently from other countries. How do you think it will develop going forward?

Eto: My view is pretty straightforward: because Japan's internet culture is cutting-edge, Japanese culture spreads worldwide. People often say Silicon Valley is number one in the internet world. Technologically, that might be true, but culturally, I think it's different. Japan has consistently thrived in homogeneous, niche spaces, leading to many uniquely Japanese phenomena. For example, people who gathered and got excited on 2channel caused incidents by orchestrating information leaks. Back then, that was a uniquely Japanese phenomenon. There's a bulletin board in America called 4chan, created under the influence of 2channel. The group called Anonymous that gathers there orchestrated various information leaks, becoming a topic of discussion not just in America but worldwide. The pranks happening on anonymous boards in Japan occurred similarly in America. I think what was considered a local Japanese culture will continue to be exported globally.

As is often said, the culture of writing diaries on SNS first emerged on Japan's mixi, right? The "clique culture" of writing diaries on mixi spread everywhere, driving the development of SNS. Facebook is a prime example. What will be next...? I think it's NicoNico.

Tsuchiya: I see. So, what changes do you foresee happening in Japan going forward?

Eto: I think things that were previously seen as high barriers will gradually become more accepted. For example, smartphone payments will likely become more widespread. Also, social lending (online peer-to-peer lending services) – while lending between individuals is currently prohibited by law in Japan, I expect that will change going forward.

Tsuchiya: It's true that services requiring payment have increased. Until recently, there was this atmosphere where everything online was free as a matter of course, but lately, things like subscriptions and donations feel much more commonplace.

Eto: I'm interested in how Japan will handle payment methods—not just as simple fees, but with uniquely Japanese ideas. Recently, Japanese game developers released a game where you can haggle over prices. Normally, when buying items in games, they have a set price. But in this game, you can talk to the shopkeeper and haggle for items. Even a 500-yen item can be bought for 400 yen if you talk it up right, like "Fine, I'll let you have it for 400 yen." And once you haggle, you feel bad if you don't buy it. I think this is a brilliant idea.

Tsuchiya: Being able to haggle is definitely impressive. Some PC manufacturer shopping sites have systems where if you dig down to the third level, a chat pops up and you can ask questions anytime. The idea is that if you've gotten this close to buying, it's actually more efficient and leads to higher conversion rates to invest in that communication cost. It'd be interesting if you could negotiate and haggle for a discount there, right?

Eto: Speaking of which, it might be interesting to create an AI that handles being haggled with. Haggling itself incurs communication costs, so having an AI handle that could be profitable.

Tsuchiya: Furthermore, if the AI learns from the data of being haggled with during conversations, it could naturally start finding a sweet spot for pricing, and that could become the fair market price. A market system like that could emerge.

Eto: This idea is fascinating (laughs). It feels like something that could happen in the future.

Culture evolves by creating island universes.

Tsuchiya: Google launched a search feature overseas called "Search Plus Your World." It uses your Google+ social graph to weight search results, and it seems likely to be introduced in Japan soon. If implemented, search results on Google would more readily include information related to people within your immediate social circle, leading to concerns that the internet might become narrower. Earlier, we discussed how Japanese culture tends to "thrive in narrow spheres." What are your thoughts on this trend of the internet fragmenting into island universes?

Eto: Cass Sunstein's book "Is the Internet an Enemy of Democracy?" discusses how the personalization of search results and the resulting fragmentation of the world is dangerous. However, even so, personalization is unavoidable, and I think we will continue to move towards this island universe phenomenon.

Tsuchiya: On the other hand, Nico Nico Gakkai Beta seems to be bridging these divides by bringing together different academic fields, doesn't it?

Eto: That's one aspect, but you could also view it as actively creating an island universe. Traditionally, academic societies were, at least in theory, global and open to everyone. In contrast, Nico Nico Gakkai Beta is based on Nico Nico Live, a somewhat closed platform, and features participants through user-driven methods—a different route from conventional academic societies. So, you could say it's a new kind of island universe.

Tsuchiya: I see, a new island universe.

Eto: The term "island universe" carries various meanings. The book mentioned earlier discusses it in relation to democracy, suggesting that excessive personalization can be dangerous. However, culture evolves in part by creating these island universes. For example, the American venture accelerator "Y Combinator" operates as an internal island universe. Precisely because of this, it enables dense communication and continuously sparks innovation.

Tsuchiya: So innovation and new cultures emerge from island universes.

Eto: Every island universe has that potential. Rather than rejecting island universes themselves, we should create good ones, then spread what emerges within them to the wider world, fostering positive impact.

Tsuchiya: I see. Culture evolves through the creation of island universes. Rather than viewing this isolation negatively, the key is how to build good island universes.

Recently, in corporate marketing activities too, we see many strategies focusing less on broadly permeating awareness of products or services, and more on how to deeply engage with the people using them. This can be seen as actively creating "good island universes" to cultivate the culture (≈ brand) surrounding those products or services. I think this is a highly insightful approach, not just for marketing communication, but also for how to build corporate culture and teams.

And I believe the engine driving the creation of this "good island universe" is people who possess the mindset and skills symbolized by "wild researchers" – those who pursue things simply because they seem interesting – and people who find that interesting.

Even if you don't know what value it will create, you try it because it's "interesting" or "looks interesting." How do we foster an atmosphere where everyone shares that "let's have fun with it" spirit? Discussions like this will likely become crucial for driving innovation and creating new cultures going forward.

Thank you for your valuable insights today!

Interview Location: National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST)