Future Scenario Creation Program Focusing on the "Feelings" of People in Daily Life

At Dentsu Inc., even within its innovation consulting services—which support the formulation of future scenarios for management/business strategy and new product/service development—the company emphasizes its unique focus on the consumer mindset. This time, we explain the "Dentsu essence" embedded in the "Future Scenario Creation Program"*1, built upon thorough trend analysis and right-brain thinking.

 

Outlining Future Strategies Beyond What Possible Events Reveal

The Future Scenario Creation Program is a newly developed methodology for companies to envision their desired business futures. To provide an overview, we first introduce the five steps implemented in the program below.

● Five Steps of the Future Scenario Creation Program

These five steps enable the creation of various future scenarios, including the formulation of product/service pipelines, mid-term management strategies and business scenarios, and the development of products/services envisioning future customers.

First, note the "Mid-to-Long-Term Future Trends 2014" (right diagram) used in Step 1. This framework categorizes trends expected to strengthen over the mid-to-long term into four domains: "Population & Households," "Society & Economy," "Earth & Environment," and "Science & Technology." Within each category, macro trends are positioned centrally, with micro trends radiating outward toward the periphery. A total of 59 events are arranged as future trends. While not shown here, each trend event is supplemented with supporting statistical data and other background information in a one-item-one-leaf format.

 

From these future trends, we carefully examine and consider the necessary trends based on the client's industry, business sector, and project challenges, leading into Step 2.

Next, we draw your attention to the "Future Mind" used in Step 2. This is the conceptual tool that characterizes the program, focusing on the future "feelings" of consumers.

While numerous future prediction books line bookstore shelves, most focus solely on events. However, when formulating future scenarios for mid-to-long-term business strategies or product development, focusing only on events rarely leads to breakthrough ideas.

Today, a paradigm shift is occurring in corporate brand strategy, moving from "company-centric" to "customer-centric." When envisioning future scenarios, we must now consider what feelings will be strongest among customers and consumers several years ahead. Focusing on future feelings (mindset) should make it easier to sketch new business strategies and product development roadmaps.

This led to the creation of "Future Minds" as an idea generation tool. Based on the "59 Mid-to-Long-Term Future Trends" mentioned earlier, it extracts the sentiments that will strengthen among consumers going forward. The initial list of mind seeds numbered over 1,300. These were grouped, further consolidated, and ultimately distilled into the "58 Future Minds." In practical program implementation, these "58 Future Minds" can serve as templates. Alternatively, through repeated sessions with client companies, specific areas can be explored in depth to create Future Minds tailored to individual challenges.

The "Chemical Reaction of Ideas" Born from Right-Brain Thinking

Step 3 is the most crucial stage in the Future Scenario Creation Program. Here, based on the future trends extracted in Step 1 and the Future Minds derived from them in Step 2, we identify key development themes for the company and its industry.

So, what effect does combining future trend phenomena with consumers' future mindsets have on formulating future scenarios? Let's illustrate with an example.

The following example uses smart house concept development. Traditional thinking, based solely on future events like "advancements in smart technology" or "advancements in IT technology," would result in a list of general points about the future of smart houses that remain within conventional thinking—such as "self-generation using solar power or fuel cells" or "management of home appliances and housing equipment."

 

 

In contrast, when combined with future consumer mindsets like "wanting to live efficiently" or "desiring to own fewer things," more concrete living scenarios emerge, such as "sharing rarely used items locally" or "monitoring usage in real-time via smartphone." This is the "chemical reaction of ideas" born from right-brain thinking.

The Future Scenario Creation Program incorporates numerous mechanisms and support tools characteristic of Dentsu Inc.'s innovation consulting. For instance, Step 2 utilizes Dentsu Inc.'s proprietary facilitation program "Power Session®"*2, while Step 3's setting of key development themes includes conducting a "Future Certainty Survey"*3 to validate the reliability of future mindsets.

Deriving Solutions Through Personal Problem Awareness and Ideation When the Future Scenario Creation Program focuses on product development, leveraging existing tools like the "Mid-to-Long-Term Future Trends" and "58 Future Minds" mentioned earlier allows sessions to progress to Step 5's Future Scenario Ideation in about two days. However, in practice, the key lies in designing a project tailored to the client company's specific challenges. This may involve prior training to familiarize participants with combining future trends and future mindsets, extracting relevant future trends and mindsets for the given challenge, or conducting an inventory of existing information.

What matters most is that client company members share their problem awareness and derive solutions by generating ideas from various angles. Since the participants themselves are ultimately responsible for finding the answers, we focus solely on supporting that process.

Creating a comfortable environment for discussion is part of this. Some companies have a corporate culture where employees hold back their opinions until their superiors speak. During sessions, we strive to foster an atmosphere where participants can relax and discuss freely, shedding such inhibitions. It's essentially creating a "non-routine" setting.

Within this atmosphere, the ultimate goal is for participants to reexamine the value of their company's products and services, as well as their feelings toward customers—aspects they may not have fully recognized before—and ultimately to fully envision scenarios that shape the company's future. We want to energize our company and energize the world. This desire is shared equally by the project members of our client companies and by us.

 

*1 Future Scenario Creation Program... A program developed with the cooperation of the Innovation Promotion Team, Business Planning Office, Tobacco Business Division, Japan Tobacco Inc.
　

＊2 Power Session®……Dentsu Inc.'s proprietary facilitation program. It generates innovation by utilizing idea-support tools, stimulus materials, and open innovation mechanisms.
　

＊3 Future Certainty Survey... For 58 future mindsets, calculated the score difference between responses to two questions: "Do you feel this now?" and "Do you think you will feel this in 5 years?" to identify "Mindsets Likely to Increase in the Future."

 

Location: BICE