How will "News" and "Media" change?

Smartphones are profoundly transforming Japanese lifestyles. This shift is most strikingly evident in information behaviors surrounding media and news. Researchers discuss the "current state of media" revealed by a survey conducted by Video Research Ltd. (VR) and DENTSU SOKEN INC.

Dentsu Inc.'s Oku: This year marks the 20th anniversary of online news, a significant milestone. As we introduced in our previous article "Smartphones and the Japanese" (June issue), smartphones are profoundly transforming our lives, especially the environment surrounding media and news. We continue our research with Video Research Ltd., guided by this awareness.

Dentsu Inc. Miwa: The timeline above provides an overview of the evolution of online news media, including reader behavior. As shown, new trends in online news rise and fall within just five years. We believe smartphones are one key factor driving the current changes in this environment.

VR・Watanabe: In our previous study, "Smartphones and the Japanese," we showed how users, using LINE as a hub, switch between apps—moving from LINE to another app within 10 seconds, then back to LINE, and on to another app. Teens and those in their 20s and 30s are extremely busy, communicating while also accessing news and other information. Our latest survey, "The Future of News and Media in the Curation Era," examined what media are being viewed and what information is being consumed, specifically focusing on news.

Dentsu Inc.'s Amano: The key point is analyzing the variety of information sources people rely on, examining how the division of roles with traditional media has been updated, and considering the motivations and characteristics surrounding users' media behaviors.

Watanabe: First, let's briefly review the situation over the past five years or so, focusing on online news media. Around 2010, an activity called "curation" began gaining attention. This involved individuals with discerning judgment adding their own commentary to events across various fields and sharing it with their followers on platforms like Twitter. Around the same time, "summary sites" started to proliferate. Subsequently, "curation media" emerged, automatically identifying content based on metrics like online buzz and popularity, then packaging and distributing it. Understanding the impact these developments have had on the environment surrounding news and media is our starting point. Additionally, this time, we'll be joined by Kishimoto and Ishikura, members of the "VR Wakamono Lab" at Video Research Ltd., where I also belong, to discuss the landscape surrounding news in the smartphone era.

The Advancing Casualization of News
Toward an Era Where Everyday Matters Hold News Value

 
Watanabe: This survey, conducted in March this year, targeted "people aged 15 to 69, excluding junior high school students" nationwide, compiling results from 4,367 valid respondents. First, we categorized various media into 71 types and asked "what they rely on" for each. Based on those results, we reclassified them into 13 types.

Miwa: Overall, television and newspapers ranked high as "reliable information sources." However, many online media outlets, including portal news sites like Yahoo! News which placed second, also ranked highly. Further analysis of trends by age group across the 13 reclassified media types revealed that those in their 30s and younger rely on the internet, while those in their 50s and older rely on terrestrial broadcasts, newspapers, and magazines.

Oku: The watershed is the 40s. We see that people who were in their 20s twenty years ago, when online news emerged, now engage with a balanced mix of existing media and online sources.

Amano: Looking at it another way, we can foresee a future where the majority rely on the internet. Beyond this, among younger generations—for example, those in their 20s—the reliance extends across diverse media. This is suggested by the ranking of "participatory information aggregation sites like Wikipedia" at 4th place, "summary sites" at 7th, and "trending topic/gossip news sites" at 13th. It also indicates an expansion in the definition of what constitutes "news." Similar patterns emerge among teens and those in their 30s.

Oku: News isn't really news anymore. I've been touching on this in lectures for the past four or five years: for today's youth, things happening within a three-meter radius of themselves—specifically, things like "I found a cute dog video" or "My friend got a boyfriend"—are news. What we call news, like what's covered on TV or in newspapers, they distinguish as "events happening in the world." Things close to them are news; everything else is just world events. This result seems to confirm that.

VR・Kishimoto: In July this year, VR Wakamono Lab conducted a workshop for young people and surveyed them about the share of media in their minds. Alongside TV and newspapers, names like LINE and portal news sites came up. In previous surveys of this kind, responses beyond mass media like TV and newspapers often used abstract terms like "the internet," and specific service or app names rarely appeared one after another.

Watanabe: This is a recent trend. On smartphone screens, all services appear flatly as app icons. That might be the reason.

Oku: It seems that through SNS and curated media, all events are consumed as news in a flat manner. For young people, events related to politics, economics, and social incidents appear to hold equal value as information as something like "I had omelet rice for lunch today."

Kishimoto: Just to add, this survey shows mindshare, so it doesn't mean they aren't watching TV. Even if they spend more time exposed to TV, using apps tends to be more noticeable.

Watanabe: Even when asking about product awareness pathways, TV commercials still show overwhelming strength. We need to separate this from whether people are consciously paying attention.

Oku: Online information requires active seeking to access; you need to input keywords to search for specific topics. But people won't search for things they don't know about, nor will they try to find them. In that sense, television's role as a medium that can "inform" is crucial.

Kishimoto: Celebrity names also originate from TV. Even girls who immediately follow models on Instagram (photo-sharing SNS) only spread within their own circles.

Miwa: Similar findings emerged in a survey asking about the recognition of "online opinion leaders" who frequently share opinions and commentary online. We listed about 50 specific names and asked about recognition. Those recognized by over 10% were actually people who appear on TV. Conversely, even those who share sharp opinions see their recognition drop dramatically if they don't appear on TV.

Oku: It suggests a general lack of interest in who is sharing what information and when. The traditional journalistic approach of conveying information using the 5W1H (who, what, when, where, why, and how) has broken down. People now selectively choose only what interests them as news. A classic example is the heartwarming stories that regularly circulate on social media. Those familiar with them think, "How many times has this story spread now?" But for someone encountering it for the first time, it is news, and if it isn't known within their immediate circle, it tends to spread.

Emergence of a cluster with high information involvement but low social interest

 
Watanabe: This survey not only examined "reliable information sources" but also grouped similar individuals based on the characteristics of their usage patterns across the aforementioned 13 media types. The eight clusters are: ① High Information Engagement (approx. 5.8%) ② Internet Information Focus (approx. 3.4%) ③ Digital Media (approx. 6.6%) ④ Mass Media Affinity (approx. 5.6%) ⑤ Lifestyle Information (approx. 10.1%) ⑥ Light Online Information Users (approx. 16.6%) ⑦ Terrestrial TV Viewers (approx. 22.4%) ⑧ Low Media Engagement (approx. 29.4%).

Miwa: We also examined the tendencies of these eight groups. One aspect is "motivation or reasons for accessing news in areas of interest." We identified three main motivations: "Personal Motivation" (accessing news based on personal hobbies or life interests), "Cooperative Motivation" (accessing news to smooth social interactions, e.g., "What about that ◯◯ they mentioned on TV?"), and "Social Motivation" (accessing news to demonstrate public or civic concern to others). This revealed the motivations of groups like the high information involvement segment.

Watanabe: The high information involvement group starts engaging with news out of personal motivation. Due to their high literacy, they can delve deeply into information, often reaching original sources. However, because they dig too deeply into individual pieces of information, they can miss broader societal events. This group is the only one where TV involvement falls below the average across all media.

VR/Ishikura: During our research, we encountered the following case. In July, there was an accident where a plane crashed after taking off from Chofu Airport in Tokyo. A few days later, when we interviewed university students, we showed them a prepared list and asked, "Do you know any recent news items?" They didn't know about that accident. When we asked, "Don't you think it's problematic that you don't know about it?", they responded, "We don't talk about that kind of thing with friends," showing no interest. Their concerns were limited to school and friends. Despite actively using the internet, their lack of social awareness was surprising.

Miwa: If we liken traditional mass media to the foothills of the Alps, then various curated media platforms might be seen as individual peaks branching off from those foothills. The information-high-involvement group, possessing high internet literacy, can traverse ridges to reach topics of interest. However, they rarely encounter news circulating at the foothills unless it becomes a topic of conversation in their immediate surroundings. This is how I envision the reality of the highly information-engaged group. For the internet information-focused group, they select media more balanced and engage with news driven by social motivations. To reiterate, high literacy and frequent information exposure do not necessarily equate to high social interest. The spread of the internet doesn't inherently boost social engagement; careful observation is needed.

Amano: Three characteristics were observed among young people who rely on curated media. First, their interests lean toward casual topics like comics and anime rather than current affairs such as politics and economics. Second, their approach to and motivation for news and information are strongly driven by satisfying personal interests and sharing topics with peers. Finally, related to this, their information behavior and consumption mindset are more trend-driven than particularistic, and they are sensitive to reading the mood of their peers and society.

Watanabe: In surveys asking about the purposes and contexts for using various media, curated media and SNS were closely related, but actually, magazines are also quite similar. I thought this was an interesting trend.

Miwa: Around 2006, medium-sized thematic sites independent from existing media, dubbed "middle media," gained attention. Fashion news sites, for instance, were said to be viable on their own. Discussions emerged then about how hobby information and content previously handled by magazines were acquiring newsworthiness. Today, we can say this trend has accelerated due to smartphone proliferation. Looking at it another way, we're entering a media society capable of catering to people's diverse interests, bringing new possibilities to marketing. I think this is something to welcome. For example, anime can spark a boom in pilgrimages to sacred sites, or manga can shine a spotlight on specific regions or professions – creating trends that wouldn't emerge from traditional news contexts.

The distribution and consumption of information are becoming increasingly polarized, like a two-humped camel.

Oku: Finally, let's discuss how to interpret the survey results.

Amano: This survey clearly divided respondents into two groups: approximately 20% of highly engaged media users and the remaining 80%. This reveals that the Pareto principle (the 80:20 rule) also applies to information distribution and consumption, with information concentrating intensely among the 20% highly engaged segment.

Oku: To put it another way, it's not like a one-humped camel with volume concentrated in the center, but more like a two-humped camel where polarization is advancing. Therefore, if companies aim for the lowest common denominator—the middle ground—when formulating their marketing strategies, they could end up with disastrous results. So, paradoxically, targeting each pole separately and implementing communication strategies based on segmentation rather than diffusion might yield unexpected outcomes.

Watanabe: To add a bit more, if you zoom in closer to the twin-humped camel's peaks, you see numerous small clusters of interests forming their own peaks. The core challenge is how to capture these highly volatile clusters. The key lies in approaching them from outside the network—that is, from the real world.

Ishikura: This is something often discussed as a common Twitter phenomenon: men tend to tweet less after getting a girlfriend, while women tend to tweet more after getting a boyfriend. It seems real-life events can influence online behavior.

Kishimoto: Watching TV during free time used to be a habit, but now that's shifted to smartphone screens. However, the topics discussed there often revolve around TV content. Whether it's real-time viewing or not, TV remains a significant external presence to the internet.

Miwa: These survey results reflect only the current situation; things will undoubtedly change in about five years. How we interpret this state of flux and what actions we take in response – I want to emphasize that this will require rethinking traditional methodologies.

Oku: That's the difference between Showa-era marketing and Heisei-era marketing—it's the realm of challenge and innovation.

Summary!!

As touched upon in the roundtable, the key lies in the process of change itself. It's crucial to first grasp the current reality firmly, then plan accordingly, constantly check progress, and avoid being constrained by established experiences or preconceptions. This situation arose because we're now connected to the internet 24/7, 365 days a year, and access news anytime, anywhere via smartphones. Media theory that ignores smartphone trends may no longer hold water going forward.